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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Appears going to be fighting some drier air and light shear once into the GOM and pretty good deal of land interaction which could keep this a minimal hurricane which is just fine with me... Side not the area the path is right now is an area known for some pretty good storms in the past really ramping up intensity wise so that is a possible fly in the ointment here.... Stay tuned


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Well let's just get a rainmaker on this one and call it a day. Can we do that? Lol land and speed is going to be a big factor as well. It def could go that far west. Sounds like a messy and weak storm is very much on the table
 
New track
0684dd48bf2619d08aff9e935af01271.jpg


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deltadog03 said:
Well let's just get a rainmaker on this one and call it a day. Can we do that? Lol land and speed is going to be a big factor as well. It def could go that far west. Sounds like a messy and weak storm is very much on the table
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Yeah I don't see this getting to anything above a cat 1 IF that

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GaWx said:
As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,
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Bump from yesterday
 
GaWx said:
As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,
Click to expand...

Further to this post from yesterday evening, note that there is more of an entity near the Keys than what the older Euro runs have been showing. In contrast, the newest Euro has something and Nate not coincidentally goes much further west and is weaker.
 
^New advisory has 5 mb lower SLP (999 vs 1004) and it has moved much more n than w (.from 13.3N, 83,3W to 13.9N, 83.4W). Is movement more NNW now?
 
1. We'll need to see if it shifts back to a more NW movement, which some models hint at. In the meantime, it is at 13.9N, 83.4W as of 8 AM. That is technically only right at the coast per this map:

http://go.grolier.com/map?id=mgam027&pid=go

From this point, will he turn more inland or will he just skirt the coast? The furthest east Nic. and Hond go is only 83.3W. If he moves NNW from here, he would just skirt the coast.

2. The 6Z GFS had it only down to 1002 mb as of 8AM while the Euro had 1003 and the CMC 1004. Is it of much significance that the main models are too weak by 3-5 mb?
 
GaWx said:
1. We'll need to see if it shifts back to a more NW movement, which some models hint at. In the meantime, it is at 13.9N, 83.4W as of 8 AM. That is technically only right at the coast per this map:

http://go.grolier.com/map?id=mgam027&pid=go

From this point, will he turn more inland or will he just skirt the coast? The furthest east Nic. and Hond go is only 83.3W. If he moves NNW from here, he would just skirt the coast.

2. The 6Z GFS had it only down to 1002 mb as of 8AM while the Euro had 1003 and the CMC 1004. Is it of much significance that the main models are too weak by 3-5 mb?
Click to expand...
That's interesting . Previous Euro runs kept nate well offshore . Clearly with it's its current position those runs were outliers. But if it stays just offshore it makes you wonder about development and fututre track. Will be interesting to see if the NW bend takes shape today as the models are showing

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