accu35
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You think gfs is too far west? Maybe not?18z GEFS even further west now
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Tropical Hurricane Nate
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Until the UKie and Euro or the Ukie or Euro ensembles bend to it, yes.
Storm5
Member
Yes, way too far east . but i also think the euro is too far east
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Storm5
Member
Ukmet already made a big west shift at 12z and is now near Mobile. Question is does it stick with that or shift back east . It loves jumping around lately
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think the Ukie is a good bet right now. If I had to push my chips all in I'd say Pensacola to Mobile. But a lot to iron out in next 48. My stomach gets queezy at the notion of hedging bets for a GFS/CMC camp.
Storm5
Member
Agreed , the post I saw about the ukmet being near Mobile wasn't correct . Looks like it's west of the Euro but closer to Pensacola. So while it was a west shift , it wasn't as a big of a shift as previously thought
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Storm5
Member
The spread is crazy being what 3-4 days till landfall
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
No doubt. You can clearly see the two campsThe spread is crazy being what 3-4 days till landfall
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Stormlover
Member
official track is an outlier now
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I wouldn't say outlier. The NHC track is essentially the cluster to the east. Then you have anothe cluster near S LA. Two camps right now.official track is an outlier now
So we have weaker GFS west and stronger EURO east. My bet we split the difference and cat 1 near PNS and moving rapidly NE
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seeing how the 18Z models panned out, a shift west by a little bit is likely coming at 11. Also, a G-IV plane is flying tomorrow, so we should get better data.
I'm in SD's camp, whatever model blanks the Carolinas, with no rain, take it to the bank! So as of now, GFS looks correct, based on that!
whatalife
Moderator
Stormlover
Member
I saw outlier, from the 0Z tropical run showing on there
pcbjr
Member
This is not a forecast ... but look at the path of least resistance, and draw a rational conclusion ... at least until we actually have a named storm and related real data to work with ...
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,586
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-74.21,21.02,1907
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-99.29,49.14,586
Storm5
Member
Those are gfs based of course they are gonna be west
But I bet the new track is a little west from the previous
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
0Z nam has landfall near mobile. Moving NE from there
Brent
Member
11pm NHC track is further west near Pensacola