Tropical Hurricane Nate

[pcbjr]

That's the 00z eps

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Like I said - I'm living in a cave ... pardon me ...
Still headed over to Cedar Key tomorrow night ... could be a bit squally come Saturday, though ...

 

[Storm5]

Horrible graphic

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[Tarheel1]

like i said - i'm living in a cave ... pardon me ...

It's alright, the next run will be 100 miles east or west of the last run! Looks like 100% chance it hits the US, gotta focus on intensity now.

 

[whatalife]

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[Storm5]

It's amazing how the GFS and Euro and their ensembles are worlds apart . We are talking landfall Saturday .......

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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

It's amazing how the GFS and Euro and their ensembles are worlds apart . We are talking landfall Saturday .......

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Euro and the EPS are essentially lock step on a central panhandle landfall. Which, IMO, is most likely destination.

 

[Storm5]

Euro and the EPS are essentially lock step on a central panhandle landfall. Which, IMO, is most likely destination.

Eps shifted west but I agree the panhandle seems the likely landing spot . Timing is important . The GFS is fast with the system allowing for it to get west before the trough moves in. The euro is almost 24 hours slower with the system allowing the trough to move in and turn nate NE. Lots of moving parts

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[Storm5]

Watches will likely be issued for parts of the gulf coast tomorrow

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[Storm5]

This eps run most members keep the system above 980mb that would be great

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[WeatherLC]

I thought this was a fast moving storm. How come the rain fall is expected to be high inland?


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[Brent]

Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over
the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in
the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices
are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance
of rapid intensification occurring.

5pm track close to the Euro, landfall around Panama City

 

[tractor girl]

Could this system develop into a cat 2 or 3 in time before making landfall?

 

[Shawn]

If I learned anything this hurricane season, it's the NHC official forecast has been very good. They have been leaning toward the Euro solutions and adjusting accordingly, but overall they have verified well. Living and dying by each model run's track seems to be futile.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Could this system develop into a cat 2 or 3 in time before making landfall?

All I can add is that models have seriously under developed with regards to intensity this year and how quick they strengthen... Will this be the case here well we will be finding out next 48 hours or so


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[Xtreme Weather]

So far slower vs previous runs and wants to cross the YUC PEN thru 66 hours


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[Xtreme Weather]

Thru 72 still heading W/NW into the GOM
Thru 78 ts is weaker as well

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[SD]

I thought this was a fast moving storm. How come the rain fall is expected to be high inland?


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Unseasonably high PWATS, the potential for a weak remnant cold front, and upper divergence from the incoming trough will promote rain well ahead of the system. Pretty decent PRE setup

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[Xtreme Weather]

Thru 84 turning N now heading towards SE LA maybe even towards MS coast


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[Xtreme Weather]

Morgan city to Houma LA landfall area

Then rides up the MS/LA state line... Very weak k if even a TS

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[SD]

So much land interaction on the gfs

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