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Tropical Hurricane Nate

accu35 said:
Honestly, just dont believe it will go that west. I actually think there will be a small east shift when all said and done. Nothing to based this off of, but keep in mind UK does pretty good with hurricanes with path wise, i believe.
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The ukmet has been all over the place with this storm . The current track is a good one for your area . You will see some fun stuff

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Storm5 said:
The ukmet has been all over the place with this storm . The current track is a good one for your area . You will see some fun stuff

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Lol, your right
 
Tornado threat seems to be the biggest issue inland. Fast moving system flooding won't be an issue . And the wind field is very small

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I haven't really had the opportunity to look at this too closely but if it's a matter of stronger ridge slower trough then that westward adjustment makes perfectly good sense and will probably hold true. It seems to be the norm these days

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At 54 moving N/NE toward SE LA coast again still little E of 12z run

At 60hr just offshore and deepens just a little still strong TS or Cat 1 cane
 
For the last couple of days, JB has been hyping up the developmental potential of the low pressure area down near the Keys (saying it should be more than the 0% that the NHC has been forecasting) - does he have a valid point, or is it just JB being JB?
 
Arcc said:
Problematic intensity forecast incoming.
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If the shear is not as strong as the models say once in the south central GOM...WATCH out LoL cause Nate could really wind up if dry air does not get pulled in

No saying this will happen but something to watch some models have underestimated last few hurricane intensity levels so the potential is always there I guess
 
Yellow Snow said:
For the last couple of days, JB has been hyping up the developmental potential of the low pressure area down near the Keys (saying it should be more than the 0% that the NHC has been forecasting) - does he have a valid point, or is it just JB being JB?
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He's still being end of the word, but Pennsylvania will get feet of snow no matter what, and everyone else bakes or gets a cat 5 hurricane Joe Bastardi.
 
Wow, Baron has the center missing Alabama
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/\ That's funny lol. This thing has the potential to get interesting. As was pointed out in the past couple of NHC discussions the SHIPS RI index is pretty high, at least to get this thing up to a cane fairly quickly. We'll see where the center ends up later tonight, early AM. If it can stay off of the Yucatan its in an area that has climo bomb potential. I'm with the slower end of the model guidance, just not seeing a real strong tug to the north if various conus forecasts are to be believed and from the steering with anything moving to the north so far this year. Good possibility IMHO that this could still be offshore in 72 hrs
 
Nate actually got as far as 50 miles inland, meaning those runs that had him just skim the coast busted, and has been inland 11 hours, which is a good reason he doesn't look as "good". He is now only 25 miles inland and will be offshore by ~midnight.
 
Jackstraw said:
/\ That's funny lol. This thing has the potential to get interesting. As was pointed out in the past couple of NHC discussions the SHIPS RI index is pretty high, at least to get this thing up to a cane fairly quickly. We'll see where the center ends up later tonight, early AM. If it can stay off of the Yucatan its in an area that has climo bomb potential. I'm with the slower end of the model guidance, just not seeing a real strong tug to the north if various conus forecasts are to be believed and from the steering with anything moving to the north so far this year. Good possibility IMHO that this could still be offshore in 72 hrs
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Levi talks about why it should start accelerating towards the coast thanks to the LLJ and the upper low....... its a great video
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blo...central-u-s-gulf-coast-by-saturday-or-sunday/
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Storm5 said:
00z NAM is trying to crank out a really healthy storm

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This really is just thinking out loud, but I tend to wonder if the NAM(not the 3km moron model) *may* have deserve a little more weight in this senario due to the possibility of this being a small to very small hurricane.
 
Arcc said:
This really is just thinking out loud, but I tend to wonder if the NAM(not the 3km moron model) *may* have deserve a little more weight in this senario due to the possibility of this being a small to very small hurricane.
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Interesting ......But does a smaller storm increase its accuracy?

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The 00z NAM is way west of previous runs . This run is very Euro like taking nate through eastern Mississippi

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