Tropical Hurricane Nate

[Meteorologist1999]

18z GFS coming on shore in LA as a weak area of Low Pressure!!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Lol @ Goofus

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18Z GFS ensembles clustered around Mobile

 

[Storm5]

18Z GFS ensembles clustered around Mobile

Huh??? The gfs hasn't even finished yet

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[accu35]

Gfs weak, Euro strong, who knows?

 

[Stormlover]

18Z GFS ensembles clustered around Mobile

from what, 12Z? how did you get the 18Z ensembles so fast

 

[GaWx]

It's amazing how the GFS and Euro and their ensembles are worlds apart . We are talking landfall Saturday .......

As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,

 

[pcbjr]

As I assume you've noticed, the key is that the gfs is developing a surface low from the system now near the FL Straits and the Euro isn't. This leads to a weaker system hitting LA instead of a stronger storm further east. Who is right? Some people think a low is forming. Others don't. But if it does form, it may ultimately save the NE GOM coast from a big hit kind of like when Jose saved the SE US from Maria,

water vapor strongly suggests such a surface low, fwiw ... thanks, Larry!

 

[Weatherlover92]

I guess that 12z HMON run was a fluke, it's coming in much stronger and further east on 18z vs. 12z.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Here's that weenie run of the HMON we know to love to hate. lol Cat. 4 hurricane traversing the GOM.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Weakening, but pressure is ridiculously low.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Uh, yeah....this is not good...at least it's just one run so far.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Uh, yeah....this is not good...at least it's just one run so far.

Wow

 

[Brent]

HWRF just shifted way west to Central Louisiana was east of New Orleans at 12z

 

[accu35]

HWRF just shifted way west to Central Louisiana was east of New Orleans at 12z

I say between all modles, MS/Al has best shot, as of now.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Crazy the spread on the models considering it's really not too far off

 

[Brent]

Crazy the spread on the models considering it's really not too far off

they're struggling with the interaction with the disturbance near Florida that is 0/0 in the TWO, it seems the better chance for it to stay west is for the disturbance to unexpectedly become something

 

[gawxnative]

Crazy the spread on the models considering it's really not too far off

IMO it is due to the fact that Nate has not really started a motion/vector for the models to get a grasp on. Hence they are all going their various "paths".. A thought with this is to see how each model derives their solutions and compare.

 

[pcbjr]

IMO it is due to the fact that Nate has not really started a motion/vector for the models to get a grasp on. Hence they are all going their various "paths".. A thought with this is to see how each model derives their solutions and compare.

Precisely ... and having posted that so many times this year, it's great to see someone else on board! ...

 

[Storm5]

18z GEFS even further west now

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