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Tropical Hurricane Nate

11pm update is a little weaker
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I bet the 00z gfs comes in east of previous runs

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00z gfs is a great scenario. Very very weak system that brings rain to many

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Not sure what the hell the 00z CMC just did. Somehow it managed to take a system through central Mississippi but it's weak as hell also like the gfs

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UKMET almost hits New Orleans!!! and goes into MS as a low end hurricane probably, big west shift

0000UTC 08.10.2017 72 29.5N 89.8W 982 57
1200UTC 08.10.2017 84 31.9N 88.3W 992 23
 
Brent said:
UKMET almost hits New Orleans!!! and goes into MS as a low end hurricane probably, big west shift

0000UTC 08.10.2017 72 29.5N 89.8W 982 57
1200UTC 08.10.2017 84 31.9N 88.3W 992 23
Click to expand...
Ukie seems very jumpy lately

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So as fate would have it, I flew to Texas for a business trip to start the week. As I flew over Houston on Monday, I noticed some of the canals still are pretty full of water from Harvey.

I got an alert on my phone Wednesday afternoon as I was heading to the airport to head home, from a TV station from Atlanta, highlighting the potential for tropical impacts here early next week.

Haven't dove into the model data yet -- I've been home for just a couple of hours and been preoccupied with playoff baseball and laundry -- but history says for those of us in North Georgia, a robust tropical system that landfalls in the Florida panhandle/Alabama coast and moves northward spells bad weather up here.

Irma really was an outlier, a system that moves from SE Ga/NE Fla to the northwest. More often, my area gets hammered by systems that come ashore from Biloxi-Pensacola and race northward through Mississippi/Alabama, putting us north and east of the center of circulation.

Even without diving into the potential metrics of this system, those in North Georgia have to watch this. A Cat 1 that landfalls at, say, Mobile Bay and works NNE, would put a good bit of N Georgia into the area where there could be rain and wind impacts.

I really hope this does not develop into a powerful system. Let's watch it and pay attention, and plan accordingly.

--30--
 
Euro is about 30 mb weaker too, probably not even a hurricane or just barely coming ashore south of New Orleans

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