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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Storm5 said:
Ill wait for the rest of the 12z models before i decide to head for the cliff. After all it's the NAM and it still gives me rain

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Come on up to the eastern or southern escarpment of NC. With the lift and dynamics in play it's going to wring moisture out a good while. Concerned about landslides right now.
 
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Updates to watches/warnings:

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...AND FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND FROM WEST OF
GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON
COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.
 
I hate that it has to come during any kind of tropical system but it'll be good to finally get more rain again because this year is trying to have a literal dry season like last year.
 
I notice models has Nate slowing down right before landfall
 
South AL Wx said:
GFS looks a little stronger inland as well. 991 mb centered near Tuscaloosa at hour 54. And still 994 mb in Jackson County, AL at hour 60.
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If he hits as hurricane, the. He could travel just a bit with hurricane winds before dying down, especially with fast movement
 
Nate's forthcoming forward motion well in excess of 20 mph will definitely become a detriment to rapid intensification, reminiscent of what happens to weak, fragile tropical cyclones over the central Atlantic that are embedded in very stiff trade wind flow and often die as they approach the central Caribbean Graveyard. While Nate almost certainly won't die in this case, the low level diabatic PV will become appreciably tilted due to the rapid forward motion and this could serve to halt further intensification, and allow Nate to evolve into a highly asymmetric tropical cyclone and accelerate its extratropical transition over the southeastern US...
 
Nate is moving NNW at ~ 21 mph and is embedded in strong southeasterly flow (~20-25 KT) on the western flank of the CA monsoon gyre, it's questionable how much of the 50 mph sustained winds observed on Nate's eastern side is actually directly attributable to the storm...
 
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