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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Overall, models has increased a little today with best at cat 1. Will see what happens when he enters the hot tub.
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and
western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan
New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.
 
Due to low shear and very high oceanic heat content in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate should at least steadily
strengthen once it moves offshore, especially since it appears to
have a well-defined inner core. Rapid intensification is still not
out of the question, and Nate could be near hurricane intensity by
the time it reaches the Yucatan coast in about 24 hours.
 
3k NAM down to 910
f6819cc77143698f8354db9f80ff8026.jpg


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I guess it's possible this gets to hurricane status. I'm not sure though. I could see this being a weaker messy TS. Good for rain though
 
Storm5 said:
It's not a slam dunk at all. Just look at the 00z gfs

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Click to expand...
It's POSSIBLE it gets to 2 or 3, much less hurricane. Sure it 's not a given, but to say it's possible it could become a hurricane? Just seemed bizarre.
 
Y'all tell me how you get a hurricane out of this look. Again, not saying impossible but I don't think it's likely by any means. It looks pathetic on the euro
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_3.png ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_4.png
 
Damn the gfs does nothing with nate and actually it would be downgraded most likely IF the gfs verifies. Just some good ole rain I to the southeast

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Kinda impressed at the flare up of convection near the center considering Nate is barely out in open waters off the northern coast of Honduras right now. Not sure how accurate the wind shear maps from CIMSS are, but it's surprising it's able to do anything with 25-40kts of shear just northwest of where it is now. Then again we can argue it's surprising Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee, and Maria were able to develop the way they did.
 
GFS has had storms way to strong all year, now too weak? We will see. I say it will prob be about a weak cat 1 imo
 
Brent said:
The Euro did cave to it

Just sayin :p

I know I'm shocked too

The CMC is also very weak, multiple competiting areas
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know. Strange times were living in right now. "Euro" and "cave" are two of the rarest words to ever repeat in the same sentence.
 
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM NATE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2017 0 15.3N 83.5W 999 39
1200UTC 06.10.2017 12 18.5N 84.7W 993 40
0000UTC 07.10.2017 24 21.9N 86.5W 990 46
1200UTC 07.10.2017 36 25.6N 89.1W 983 56
0000UTC 08.10.2017 48 28.2N 90.0W 976 59
1200UTC 08.10.2017 60 30.8N 88.3W 971 52
0000UTC 09.10.2017 72 34.3N 85.0W 984 30
1200UTC 09.10.2017 84 37.7N 79.9W 996 24
0000UTC 10.10.2017 96 40.5N 73.8W 1001 39
1200UTC 10.10.2017 108 42.0N 69.1W 1004 35

UKMET much stronger



The UK is much stronger and it is further east than the consensus but there's a big initialization problem with UK and that has a lot to do with how strong it is and how far east its track is. First of all, it already had it just going offshore at 0Z (8 PM), or 4 hours early over hot water, and a whopping full degree east of where it actually was at 8 PM. UK had it at 83.5W and it was at 84.5 W per NHC! Shear is likely less there, too. Then, partially because of that too far east initialization, UK send him E of the Yucatan! So, that is another reason why it has him so strong. Can anyone think of a reason that this run shouldn't be thrown in the trash?
 
accu35 said:
Nate is firing up a bit
Click to expand...

The GFS/CMC don't strengthen it at all from this point on even though out over hot water while the Euro and UK do. Will the GFS/CMC score a coup or will they look stupid? We should know something within the next 6-9 hours. The current firing up is making me suspect they will look stupid but who knows?
 
GaWx said:
The GFS/CMC don't strengthen it at all from this point on even though out over hot water while the Euro and UK do. Will the GFS/CMC score a coup or will they look stupid? We should know something within the next 6-9 hours. The current firing up is making me suspect they will look stupid but who knows?
Click to expand...
096909dae2d61571a381f0211a724772b1138dba2a174da4df5dc1eae52eff15.png
 
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