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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Wow, Nate already down to 994 mb. Prob a 45/50 mph storm now.
 
Like 12Z, 0Z Euro barely misses Yuc. Stronger than GFS/CMC.

Init, ~50 miles NE of reality but much better than UK.
 
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Euro is 1000 mb just before landfall and then 993 mb over the swamp south of New Orleans

Euro appears to be stronger over Alabama than off Louisiana :rolleyes:
 
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not very excited

16_L_intensity_latest.png
 
So far 6z Nam and 6z gfs has nate stronger, lets see if he continues this trend
 
So the logic appears to be the further east it goes the stronger the solutions appear to be
 
Will be interesting to see what happens with Nate for sure. I still think this might struggle to become a hurricane, but it's possible. The stronger solution will be further east and a weak one west. Shear parameters don't look bad but not great either.
 
When I look at the satellite pic it's almost like there is too much competition for convergence. Notice how "spread" out the storms look. Need more consistent consolidated storms closer to Nate
 
Recon found 996 mb on the latest pass . Today is a big day for nate. If it does not get going today it never will

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Some have trouble keeping this a tropical storm . Couldn't ask for a better solution. A stropical storm / weak hurricane bringing rain to the dry southeast
64d55733a54137e28b7e43d87753b801.jpg


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I would say im on the east side, this should be fun for me
 
Storm5 said:
Some have trouble keeping this a tropical storm . Couldn't ask for a better solution. A stropical storm / weak hurricane bringing rain to the dry southeast
64d55733a54137e28b7e43d87753b801.jpg


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And if Nate strengthens even more, those model intensity guidance will adjust before landfall i assume
 
I don't know why, but despite the obvious differences in origin and track, I like Hurricane Lili as an intensity analog. I could totally see this RI into a Cat 3-4 before hitting a brick wall right before landfall.
 
Arcc said:
I don't know why, but despite the obvious differences in origin and track, I like Hurricane Lili as an intensity analog. I could totally see this RI into a Cat 3-4 before hitting a brick wall right before landfall.
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Yeah, I have a feeling that this messy organization could flip as soon as convection comes around to the north. Given the pressure drop, we could see some strengthening today if that happens. As far as becoming a major, we could see that it we get quick organization between now and the Yucatan, and then RI in the Gulf. The energy is there.
 
Arcc said:
I don't know why, but despite the obvious differences in origin and track, I like Hurricane Lili as an intensity analog. I could totally see this RI into a Cat 3-4 before hitting a brick wall right before landfall.
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I'm always a little weary when I see a TS move over that warm eddie loop in the central GOM we have seen many times storms explode in the area...


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As far as landfall intensity I think it will all be determined by movement. If Nate chugs westward shear will be higher than if it moves more east along with the flow. If it can move fast along with the flow the effective shear will decrease.

If shear penetrates the core then I could easily see a senario where the coast is expecting a Cat 4 to only recieve a floundering Cat 1.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
I'm always a little weary when I see a TS move over that warm eddie loop in the central GOM we have seen many times storms explode in the area...


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I don't know how much it matters in the case. A small fast moving hurricane would have rocket fuel well up to landfall.
 
Nate is currently east of the NHC track. Would support further development as it stays over water and further away from the Yucatan

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Storm5 said:
Nate is currently east of the NHC track. Would support further development as it stays over water and further away from the Yucatan

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Yep, and on TWC, fwiw, they said they didn't think the 80 mph max would verify, that it would either stay a TS, or be stronger than cat 1
 
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