Cadi40
Member
Those wind maps are most definitely overdone. If the severe threat verifies I can foresee some isolated gusts up to 60 or so, but I highly doubt this will be a widespread sustained wind event outside of localized areas.
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Tropical Hurricane Laura (Post Landfall & Inland Effects)
- Thread starter SASQUATCH
- Start date
Cadi40
Member
Those areas in Virginia got inundated with 25+ inches of rain, that’s why they were destroyed. This could be a moderate wind event, but I’m not going to hype it into something it’s not. All attention needs to be on the Gulf Coast.
Jessy89
Member
That east turn is what will decide what certain places see.
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DustinWx
Moderator
date?
Euro not backing down with it's track across NC
@Myfrotho704_ @SD we might have us an active Saturday
@Myfrotho704_ @SD we might have us an active Saturday
12z Saturday. Ample time for heating that run.
That would no doubt be a hefty squall line, a wide spread wind event not out of the question
Yeah Euro solution would be a hefty QLCS with wind damage/isolated tornadoes, forcing is favorable for one as well
So basically you have the NAM/GFS which is more strung out with the energy vs the euro which is way more consolidated, either way you get severe but the euro would suggest quite a damaging wind threat with storms 
Typically I wouldn’t go with the worst case scenario but it has been on the euro for quiet a few days now. And that’s what NWS Blacksburg is preferring to use.
For now, 1-3” rain near Elkin NC and west and gusts to 40 since it’s 3 days out. If euro holds, then isolated 3-6” gusts to 60 with isolated tornadoes needs to be addressed to the public.
Euro has a big area of 30-40kt 925s at 18z Saturday, we should do a pretty decent job at mixing those down with typical afternoon mixing. If we do get a well developed line of storms 850s are in the 50-60kt range and it wouldn't take a lot of effort to force that down. It'll be interesting to see if this does occur if it basically turns into a MCS look crossing the area with an outflow boundary 20-30 miles ahead of the main band of convection and a well developed cool pool with stratiform rain behind it. If that happens the forward progressing OFB might be very impressive as far as wind speed
Shaggy
Member
Should be some interesting Afds this afternoon across tennesee into NC
NAM 
ML Cape is so crappy
Most have them pretty much centered over NC and even some down in SC. I wouldn't be surprised to see some wind gusts in excess of 40mph. Especially with any showers. If we can get some storms going though, we could be easily seeing gusts over 60. I have my doubts that winds will be all that crazy non-thunderstorm wise. But I could be wrong.
Jessy89
Member
I wonder what grandfathers mountain will gust to?
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I seem to remember a couple years ago that the strongest winds with Michael across NC was as dryer air was pulling into the storm on the backside. Is that something we could see here. I find it interesting that models drop the pressure lower after its passes the the Ohio Valley, but it’s still on land