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Tropical Hurricane Laura (Post Landfall & Inland Effects)

Those wind maps are most definitely overdone. If the severe threat verifies I can foresee some isolated gusts up to 60 or so, but I highly doubt this will be a widespread sustained wind event outside of localized areas.
 
That east turn is what will decide what certain places see.


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So basically you have the NAM/GFS which is more strung out with the energy vs the euro which is way more consolidated, either way you get severe but the euro would suggest quite a damaging wind threat with storms 0F3702A3-E6D1-4573-B6E8-859A5463D2D6.jpegCFE7A220-2BD2-476E-9393-730DEEB14A44.pngB960F8DB-C0B1-4201-AFDF-41A951598EE7.png
 
Typically I wouldn’t go with the worst case scenario but it has been on the euro for quiet a few days now. And that’s what NWS Blacksburg is preferring to use.
 
For now, 1-3” rain near Elkin NC and west and gusts to 40 since it’s 3 days out. If euro holds, then isolated 3-6” gusts to 60 with isolated tornadoes needs to be addressed to the public.
 
Euro has a big area of 30-40kt 925s at 18z Saturday, we should do a pretty decent job at mixing those down with typical afternoon mixing. If we do get a well developed line of storms 850s are in the 50-60kt range and it wouldn't take a lot of effort to force that down. It'll be interesting to see if this does occur if it basically turns into a MCS look crossing the area with an outflow boundary 20-30 miles ahead of the main band of convection and a well developed cool pool with stratiform rain behind it. If that happens the forward progressing OFB might be very impressive as far as wind speed
 
SD said:
ML Cape is so crappy
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Yeah, very skinny, but the forcing would probably get low topped stuff ( stuff under 30kft) going, though nothing would probably reach its EL here, sounding is just so tropical
 
CLTwx said:
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Most have them pretty much centered over NC and even some down in SC. I wouldn't be surprised to see some wind gusts in excess of 40mph. Especially with any showers. If we can get some storms going though, we could be easily seeing gusts over 60. I have my doubts that winds will be all that crazy non-thunderstorm wise. But I could be wrong.
 
ryan1234 said:
Most have them pretty much centered over NC and even some down in SC. I wouldn't be surprised to see some wind gusts in excess of 40mph. Especially with any showers. If we can get some storms going though, we could be easily seeing gusts over 60. I have my doubts that winds will be all that crazy non-thunderstorm wise. But I could be wrong.
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I seem to remember a couple years ago that the strongest winds with Michael across NC was as dryer air was pulling into the storm on the backside. Is that something we could see here. I find it interesting that models drop the pressure lower after its passes the the Ohio Valley, but it’s still on land
 
Chazwin said:
I seem to remember a couple years ago that the strongest winds with Michael across NC was as dryer air was pulling into the storm on the backside. Is that something we could see here. I find it interesting that models drop the pressure lower after its passes the the Ohio Valley, but it’s still on land
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I remember that. We easily had some gusts over 50mph in Charlotte.
 
I wasn’t alive for Camille but I bet models didn’t do well with 27” of rain in just 8 hours.
 
27” not happening. But some flooding is likely to occur in the west with any training of upslope from WV to NC.
 
ryan1234 said:
I remember that. We easily had some gusts over 50mph in Charlotte.
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I think the top gust at the airport was 61mph and I had a 64mph gust on my home weather station. I watched a TV documentary on hurricanes years ago and I remember Dr. Bob Sheets saying during it, that you should never underestimate what a remnant tropical low can do when it becomes phased with a jet stream.
 
DustinWx said:
This thread is a train wreck
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EV_WS said:
Lol. In all seriousness, we really do need to watch out for some significant/severe weather, as @SD, @Rain Cold, @Myfrotho704_ have been speaking of in NE GA, upstate SC and N Carolina. Guess, we’ll know a poop ton tomorrow. Prayers, for all in her hellish path......
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The track after landfall, has really trended southe since yesterday! I think the Euro 50-60 mph wind gust over NC/SC are way to high, but Sat could be fun for y’all
 
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