Yeah 0Z ECMWF was a little West of the 12Z run
It brought the center right over Wake County.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
It brought the center right over Wake County.
12k 06Z NAM is about 3-4 hours faster and a little West of the 00Z run.
Update: NAM has it also coming right over Wake County at hour 57.
Update 2: Add the 3k high resolution NAM model to the list that now has it crossing directly over Wake County.
Update: NAM has it also coming right over Wake County at hour 57.
Update 2: Add the 3k high resolution NAM model to the list that now has it crossing directly over Wake County.
Last edited:
No longer forecast to become a hurricane, are mods sure they don’t wanna rename title to tropical storm or they be confusion in Carolinas
Flash Flood Watch for Wilkes already for This tropical storm connections
2-4” poss here with higher amounts near blue ridge over 4”
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Wilkes ain’t getting 2-4” from a weak TS going over SD and RC, sorry Larry
Wilkes will with trough to the west and TS upslope combination.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
All about that upslope.
Bannerdude
Member
This storm is something else....it went from looking like something you'd throw out with the garbage to developing what looks like a northern eyewall again in less than 2 hours
Seems very vulnerable to dmin and dmax times with intensity flare ups.
If this wasn’t a fast mover this could have been a sig upslope event. But with fast movement, likely gonna be a tornado outbreak Raleigh eastward.
The event actually starts tonight
with upslope according to WPC and Raysweather. A little minimum East of here near upstate SC and Charlotte.
with upslope according to WPC and Raysweather. A little minimum East of here near upstate SC and Charlotte.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
6z HWRF blasts central NC.
Also, tropical storm watches have been issued for Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, & Sampson counties. Expecting those to get expanded northward pretty soon.
Also, tropical storm watches have been issued for Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, & Sampson counties. Expecting those to get expanded northward pretty soon.
Shaggy
Member
Here in pitt I may not see much if any wind but will be watching for tornados
How is the East SC looking in terms of radar simulation?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cary_Snow95
Member
The deep convection firing is once again being disrupted by westerly shear. Evident in the last few frames
@Webberweather53 it looks like it shifted west from 0Z to affect more of SC.
Thanks for posting by any chance you have a qpf map from the 6z Euro too?
This still needs to be watched carefully, looks like it's trying to reorganize offshore.
Sorry man, we posted that at the same time.... it really looks less pathetic atm
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like Isaias's low level center is reforming downshear this morning, could have track implications in the Carolinas if it manages to stick the landing.
Current IR sat looks eerily similar....
This would mean a stronger storm? Could this mean a further east track?
Further east and stronger would be better for most with impacts shifting East to the OBX.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It could mean both here, but I'm somewhat doubtful it'll be able to hold on for too terribly long.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Is it possible that rather than reformation it just gets decoupled again?
Downeastnc
Member
This thing either reorganizes under the MLC off the coast or its toast...if it does that then the SC/NC border landfall's we see on many models with a more N movement right up the I95 hwy 17 corridor.....still I wont lie I expected it to be nothing when I woke up so it looks way better on sat than I was expecting.
Also that Ukie sure is consistent with landfall and strength and has been the model to keep it east of Florida, and frankly climo wise its the most likely, storm stays 100 or so miles or more offshore of the SE north of central Florida and plows into the SC/NC border heading NNE, I mean its a favored track for a reason....also its wind clown maps are woof.
Also that Ukie sure is consistent with landfall and strength and has been the model to keep it east of Florida, and frankly climo wise its the most likely, storm stays 100 or so miles or more offshore of the SE north of central Florida and plows into the SC/NC border heading NNE, I mean its a favored track for a reason....also its wind clown maps are woof.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Imo, Tropical Storm Hanna (2008) is a pretty good analog for what we can generally anticipate area-wide w/ Isaias tomorrow night into Tuesday morning in the Carolinas.
Shaggy
Member
@Webberweather53 If the center does move closer to grand bahama under the deeper storms then that would have to be a somewhat significant development. At least in the since of track up the east coast.
Attachments
Cary_Snow95
Member
There is a period of time where this system is E of the Ga coast and the shear backs off a little bit. At the same time you have the system in the right entrance of the jet. This would be the window for quick intensification as well as blossoming a large precip shield north of the track. 
As this moves north from here we are likely to see the precipitation shift to LOT toward the trough axis with help from the increasing jet streak to the north
As this moves north from here we are likely to see the precipitation shift to LOT toward the trough axis with help from the increasing jet streak to the north
I remember this one well. Sat on the apartment balcony and watched it rain buckets with nearly constant lightning. The wind didn't start really ripping until we almost got on the back side of the system and rain tapered down
LickWx
Member
Hanna was my first tropical experience after moving from Charlotte. Charlotte gets jack diddly squat in terms of tropical weather . I very much remember Hanna ! The girl and the storm .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist