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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Webberweather53 said:
Myrtle Beach. That’s likely where I’ll be headed tomorrow night
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Webb,
What do you think about the storm surge at Charleston worst case scenario? Do you think it will be anywhere near Irma, which was only a TS when it was at its closest to CHS inland in N FL and yet CHS had at 4.7 feet its highest storm surge since Hugo and even higher than Matthew!
Thanks.

Edit to @Stormsfury since he's from the area and is quite knowledgeable.

My gut says it can't be nearly as high as Irma and yet I never thought Irma's surge was going to exceed Matthew, especially with it only a TS and hundreds of miles away at closest approach. So, I'm a bit gunshy.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/TropicalStormIrma-Sep2017
 
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LithiaWx said:
Looks like more of a chance at a big letdown for the Carolinas unless you’re on the coast.
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I would imagine a couple of gusts in the 50s back to 95 and 2-3" of rain possible back to the Triangle. Unless we get unexpected strengthening overnight, I would think pretty non-severe impacts here.
 
Rain Cold said:
I would imagine a couple of gusts in the 50s back to 95 and 2-3" of rain possible back to the Triangle. Unless we get unexpected strengthening overnight, I would think pretty non-severe impacts here.
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Yeap need a Fran/Hazel type track to get much this far inland.


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Rain Cold said:
I would imagine a couple of gusts in the 50s back to 95 and 2-3" of rain possible back to the Triangle. Unless we get unexpected strengthening overnight, I would think pretty non-severe impacts here.
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Agreed, which sounds good to me. I think this tracks just a hair east of 95 just a hair west of ILM. I have no desire to tackle power outages...1-2" of rain with some 20-30mph gusts is more than enough for me.

ILM/PGV could be rough. I think metwannabe could have a rough go of it too.
 
GaWx said:
Webb,
What do you think about the storm surge at Charleston worst case scenario? Do you think it will be anywhere near Irma, which was only a TS when it was at its closest to CHS inland in N FL and yet CHS had at 4.7 feet its highest storm surge since Hugo and even higher than Matthew!
Thanks.

Edit to @Stormsfury since he's from the area and is quite knowledgeable.

My gut says it can't be nearly as high as Irma and yet I never thought Irma's surge was going to exceed Matthew, especially with it only a TS and hundreds of miles away at closest approach. So, I'm a bit gunshy.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/TropicalStormIrma-Sep2017
Click to expand...

I would hedge my bets towards this being lower than either Matthew or Irma given its size, intensity, and faster forward movement, but still being formidable enough to cause issues.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, a pretty significant one no doubt. I personally expect these to go back up once we refine the track and intensity forecast of Isaias
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Unless there are some surprises, I think the probability for much in the way of damaging wind around here is and will stay quite low. Maybe I'll be wrong, but the weak storm, quick movement, and adjusting east with the track doesn't really scream major impacts here, other than a few unlucky power outages and a couple of areas of road ponding.
 
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