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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Webberweather53 said:
Hurricane watches have been hoisted

"A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina."
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Yeah up to 70 mph now.... and this thing looking to go right over you then me. This gon be fun
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm assuming that the local NWS offices in the mountain and NW piedmont counties see precip making it further west than modeled, either that or those watches are unrelated to Isaias.
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The synoptic setup highly suggests precip making it further west than some models. This is due to the change in the baroclinic environment, by the interaction with the trough, and jet which brings cooler air into the system and forces the rain further west, similar to a mid-latitude system. Granted, the heaviest rain should remain closer to the center of the system, there could definitely be some flash flood warning further west.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The synoptic setup highly suggests precip making it further west than some models. This is due to the change in the baroclinic environment, by the interaction with the trough, and jet which brings cooler air into the system and forces the rain further west, similar to a mid-latitude system. Granted, the heaviest rain should remain closer to the center of the system, there could definitely be some flash flood warning further west.
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I'm surprised Cabarrus and Union counties haven't been included in those watches yet.
 
I’ll be sitting here with a little breeze. Looks like a lot of rain though. Track appears to go west of me by 50-100 miles.
 
52b6353ad2632498aab1879ce05727f7.jpg


This is insane. Warnings north, south, east, and west of me. We are literally the only place on the east coast from Florida to New York without any kind of warning or watch in place.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The synoptic setup highly suggests precip making it further west than some models. This is due to the change in the baroclinic environment, by the interaction with the trough, and jet which brings cooler air into the system and forces the rain further west, similar to a mid-latitude system. Granted, the heaviest rain should remain closer to the center of the system, there could definitely be some flash flood warning further west.
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I think you're correct. The orientation of the Ridge and trough at 500 and 700Mbs suggests that the storm will move NNE with wobbles to the East, and get captured/driven further NW as it approaches the Carolina Coast. I could see thunderstorms transitioning over to the NorthWest and then Southwest side, giving it kind of a Sandy-like appearance (although we aren't talking about the stronger baroclonic and tropical energy that we saw with Sandy).
 
It’s already flooding here with another strong line of storms over Boone and West Jefferson currently. It’s tied to the Tropical Storm and the trough interacting.
 
Here are the updated 34 & 50 knot wind probabilities following the 5pm NHC advisory. I expect these to increase tomorrow as Isaias gets closer w/ some introduction of hurricane force winds in southern NC.


NC_SC_wind_probs_crop.png
NC_SC_wind_probs50_crop.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here are the updated 34 & 50 knot wind probabilities following the 5pm NHC advisory. I expect these to increase tomorrow as Isaias gets closer w/ some introduction of hurricane force winds in southern NC.


View attachment 45857
View attachment 45856
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Mhx increased the wording on my TS watch from winds of 30-40 gusts to 60 to winds 40-50 gust to 70.

Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Tuesday
morning until Tuesday afternoon
 
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