BHS1975
Member
UK been pretty bullish. 981 entering NC, around 983 exiting.
View attachment 45839
Then it has it going into NYC with a 982. Seems unrealistic to me.
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UK been pretty bullish. 981 entering NC, around 983 exiting.
View attachment 45839
UK been pretty bullish. 981 entering NC, around 983 exiting.
View attachment 45839
I’m just hoping beaches are able to reopen fairly quickly upon exit of Isaias
You can clearly see the afternoon convection in the West side bands over FL, and the Eastern GOM flare and rapid east moving blow off from the cells including one near the convection blob that is Isaias...
With that side, RECON has found a large area of 65kt+ FL Level vectors well away from the LLC closer to the mid level center.
The shear is keeping Isaias in check meanwhile seemingly giving Isaias an environment to produce exceptionally strong convection
Based on ATCF, like the next advisory is going to peg Isaias as a 60 kt/70 mph tropical storm w/ a minimum central pressure of 994mb. Hurricane warnings may be on the way for parts of southern North & South Carolina
I think us here (by looking at current model runs) are going to be too far east to catch anything bad.
I feel like the bust potential here is on the upside. We are expecting a strong TS and gusts 40 to 50s and a few inches of rain.
If this intensifies up to landfall and makes it back to even 75 to 80mph then our weather only increases.
Could we see heavy rain in Clarendon and Orangeburg counties in SC? I’m confused because now models are moving the rain toward the coast.Based on ATCF, like the next advisory is going to peg Isaias as a 60 kt/70 mph tropical storm w/ a minimum central pressure of 994mb. Hurricane warnings may be on the way for parts of southern North & South Carolina
I'm in Fayetteville, looks like I'm gonna get smoked.
westerly shear still strong, look at the thunderstorms tops on the west coast of Florida getting blown off....so holding steady is about the best one could expect and if the MLC flare ups back off at all this is a naked swirl again...still if it can maintain for another 12-18 hrs there will be a window for this thing to get its crap together into landfall.
I said the same thing on the last page,?
Yeah, it's undercutting shear beneath the outflow higher up.
That same shear though seems to be aiding in vigorous convection. Isaias has a stout circulation and PWATS exceed 3"!
It comes down now to how far west the LLC can get before the recurve back begins...