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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Looks like more of a chance at a big letdown for the Carolinas unless you’re on the coast.

I think it's going to be the worse where it comes in at southern NC near Wilmington and the NC and SC border. But after that it looks like the worse of it is going to be between 95 and US1 instead of at the coast.
 
It rained more here in a thunderstorm Friday night than those totals along the 95 corridor. Are those legit or the NWS going on the low end?
Considering it will be moving rapidly across the state those numbers might be on the high side.
 
This looks about right.

4319b54d85992d3ed2e101e5d39155c1.jpg



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With the real possibility of it being a hurricane if it ends up east of forecast more over Wilmington or east as a deeper system feels the trough more?
 
With the real possibility of it being a hurricane if it ends up east of forecast more over Wilmington or east as a deeper system feels the trough more?

I dont think it will move much at this point anywhere from dragging up the SE coast to maybe as far east as MHX and over the sounds, but it would be a major bust at this point to see it move east of NC all together, the east side of the NHC cone is inside Hatteras....so that would be a fairly big miss in this range. That said we have seen them do that before.
 
Transverse banding is looking amazing on Isaias, probably signaling that the environment it’s in is improving hella quick, probably gonna see some decent strengthening

Over-performing TCs is the theme these days.


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000
WTNT34 KNHC 030242
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 79.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick
Island Delaware, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A
Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
from Smith Point southward.
 
Apparent center of circulation on radar seems to be a fake-out. Here’s the latest vortex fix from recon with a radar at the exact same time. The center is still south and west of the transverse band.

View attachment 45881
Still not stacked BUT the MLC is better defined and at least appears less impacted by shear.....so I would think it is slowly stacking itself back up....but once it gets north of FL off GA/SC I worry there is a chance this thing is able to cash in on the deep warm water.....most people are expecting a TS here, its business as usual really, stores had no run on them, all the extra water Food Lion had out was untouched....my fear is people go to sleep Monday night expecting 70 mph Isaias and wake up to winds from 100-110 mph Isaias.....
 
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