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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Brent said:
It's like the gfs and Euro have flipped a few runs ago the gfs had nothing lol
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I was thinking the same thing. Also interesting to note the trailing wave over the NE is much slower this run. So if it were to develop the window for a recurve is open on this run
 
Poimen said:
It’s too early to make any kind of educated guess regarding the future of this system beyond its approach to the Lesser Antilles.
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True but we can say majority of storms miss.
 
Most storms that form way out there never hit the US or even Bermuda for that matter. However, for the few that do, models most times are showing a recurve at this point. Nothing is off the table at all at this stage.
TW
 
Yes but this one has yet to develop and development will probably be slow. By the time it develops it could in a spot that favors a closer approach to the SE US, or maybe even a EC scenario. Time always tells. Thankfully there’s still plenty of time with this one.
 
Poimen said:
Yes but this one has yet to develop and development will probably be slow. By the time it develops it could in a spot that favors a closer approach to the SE US, or maybe even a EC scenario. Time always tells. Thankfully there’s still plenty of time with this one.
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Imo if it takes a longer time to get consolidated it’s gonna stay south and get shredded. Fingers crossed
 
Icon at 135 hr trough in the NE kicking out second wave diving into the plains. Any storm should be drawn more north as the NE trough swings by. As it exits and the next trough digs in the issue l plains we should get some ridging to build in the west Atlantic

icon_z500_vort_us_46.png
 
ICON wide right.

719dde0acff703f106518541617925d2.jpg



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Unlike yesterday's 18Z GEFS and similar to today's 0Z/6z, most GEFS members either recurve offshore or skirt the coast. I count only 10%/2 TS+ members that come well inland (one to GA/SC; other NC) compared to about 8 on the 18Z as opposed to either a coastal skirter or a recurver offshore (one TD also comes onshore NC):

1595783983587.png
 
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Later in the 12Z GEFS run better showing how either the offshore or coastal skimming route is heavily favored over something coming well inland:
1595784775475.png
 
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