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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Cary_Snow95 said:
Drastic changes again with the energy over the Midwest.
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Yeah this would put me in the eyewall and it's literally 10 days away. I'm glad im in the bullseye 10 days out. It will 100% not be here if it hits......atleast that's how it works with snowstorms anyways.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I still favor a miss. Everything was in the Bahamas this morning now it’s already 400 miles nw of there. Euro even took a step towards a recurve
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I'm leaning that way, but this time of year, you just never know how long a ridge can hold on. Probably OTS or an OB scraper would be my guess.
 
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the wave moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Now up to 50/80.
 
Shaggy said:
Its 10 days out. Anything is possible and we will just need to wait atleast 5 days before we even start seeing the real players on the field.
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Especially this year with less upper air data.


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About 50% of the 18Z GEFS members have a TS or H hit anywhere from FL to ME, the most ominous of any GEFS yet. Also, even though recurves and dissipations, combined, are favored for TCs forming E of 50W, that favorable margin is about at its lowest around this time of year, especially with it not being El Niño. However, the good news is that this is still at least 7-8 days out and so we’re still in somewhat of a Sat AM cartoon range as opposed to worrisome range for the time being. So, there’s still plenty of time to start seeing a safe recurve tendency on runs as we head through the next few days, especially if it gets strong fast. Fingers crossed as any H hit would be worse than the normal bad news due to Covid.
 
As of hour 192, the 0Z GEFS is much less ominous looking than the 18Z as it has a much higher recurve % though there are still a few hits (3 direct NC H hits out of ~21) as well as quite a few close calls with E NC as often being the case in this kind of scenario being at highest risk of the E coast states:

0Z GEFS hour 192 mean:
1595739995943.png


18Z GEFS hour 198 mean:
1595740096770.png
 
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These GEFS 120 hour mean precip maps will give one a good idea of the overall threat levels for each run: note how far E of the 18Z shield is the 0Z and that the 0Z reverted back to close to what the 12Z showed,,so hopefully Happy Hour was drunk and was a westward fluke...we'll see:

0Z GEFS
1595740744369.png

18Z GEFS:
1595740777032.png

12z GEFS:
1595740815019.png
 
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OTOH, though less ominous for the W US GOM coast vs its prior run, the 0Z CMC ens is for the SE US much more ominous than the 0Z GEFS and is more ominous than its prior run for the SE with about half its members directly hitting as a TS+; fortunately it is inferior on average to the GEFS and hopefully had too much to drink here:

0Z CMC ens 120 hour precip: note less precip Gulf coast and more in SE vs 12Z run (below this) that resembles the 18Z GEFS:
1595743144355.png

12Z CMC ens 120 hour precip:
1595743230299.png

0Z CMC ens hour 168:
1595743649565.png
 
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