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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Current flights versus flights a year ago. Makes me wonder if they will have to fly more G4 missions this year.
 

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Now at 80/90 chance.
Shower activity is becoming a little better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become increasingly conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next day or two while moving westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. This system is expected to begin affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night, and
interests on those islands should continue to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 pe
Click to expand...
 
Forgive me if I’m wrong but isn’t the AVNI the GFS spaghetti model and the AEMI the GEFS spaghetti model?
 
Easy recurve well east on the 0Z GFS and now we're within 6-7 days. Still no need for big SE concern at this time thankfully, whether it be an easy recurve or staying far south and weak:

1595823973530.png
 
The inferior CMC (0z) barely misses landfall on OB as it heads just offshore up the coast.
1595825468489.png
 
0Z GEFS: 2 hit NC (10%), 2 skirt NC coast (10%), and pretty much the rest recurve offshore. Here is the 120 hour precip map, showing the heaviest offshore and the highest risk, if there is impact onshore, to E NC, pretty similar to earlier runs:

1595827043948.png
 
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Cary_Snow95 said:
Euro is unchanged. Dissipates the storm south of the islands
Click to expand...

0Z EPS: even weaker with but 3 weak TC (2 ~TS and 1 ~TD) members of 51 hitting the US. Here are 2 of them hitting S FL (look carefully):
 

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GaWx said:
Easy recurve well east on the 0Z GFS and now we're within 6-7 days. Still no need for big SE concern at this time thankfully, whether it be an easy recurve or staying far south and weak:

View attachment 45153
Click to expand...

The GFS always breaks down the subtropical high too quickly and simply looks unrealistic in general.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS always breaks down the subtropical high too quickly and simply looks unrealistic in general.
Click to expand...


I currently favor the Euro/EPS of little development/pretty far south track into NE Caribbean. (Almost) no ensemble member of the 0Z GEFS/GEPS/EPS has a TS+ that is first south of the Greater Antilles. Practically every 0Z member that does much of anything travels just south of, near or N of PR as opposed to cruising the Caribbean or crossing Hispaniola or Cuba.
 
Just waking up. Looks like a trend to a weaker system overnight. Satellite imagery of 92L looks better than yesterday but still extremely spread out. This circulation is so broad it might be a while for it to get its act together. It’s definitely racing the clock as it pushes towards the islands, as a path below the islands is a death sentence for it.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Just waking up. Looks like a trend to a weaker system overnight. Satellite imagery of 92L looks better than yesterday but still extremely spread out. This circulation is so broad it might be a while for it to get its act together. It’s definitely racing the clock as it pushes towards the islands, as a path below the islands is a death sentence for it.
Click to expand...

They don’t call it the graveyard for nothing.


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Cary_Snow95 said:
Just waking up. Looks like a trend to a weaker system overnight. Satellite imagery of 92L looks better than yesterday but still extremely spread out. This circulation is so broad it might be a while for it to get its act together. It’s definitely racing the clock as it pushes towards the islands, as a path below the islands is a death sentence for it.
Click to expand...
It looks like the models that develop this get deep convection going on the north end of the wave axis then basically have a center chasing convection or a northerly lopsided system. This helps to bias the track north and fast which allows it to arrive in the SW Atlantic while the NE trough and upper low are still connected thus the east track. The 0z cmc was a good example of how close the timing is with the bend back toward the US at the end.

The real catch 22 here is if we delay development but keep a coherent wave into the Caribbean once it gets past the graveyard it would have a chance to start putting itself together but would likely be hooked into the GoM.
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS: 2 hit NC (10%), 2 skirt NC coast (10%), and pretty much the rest recurve offshore. Here is the 120 hour precip map, showing the heaviest offshore and the highest risk, if there is impact onshore, to E NC, pretty similar to earlier runs:

View attachment 45156
Click to expand...

6Z GEFS: slightly higher risk to mainly NC vs 0Z but still nothing to write home about with most recurving offshore
9469845A-FBDD-4508-9F68-67E7F515748B.png
 
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What was looking like a big deal. May not be such a big deal anymore. Better start watching the waves behind this one.


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If it stays week though it very well could find the Gulf of Mexico though


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As long as 92L struggles, the GFS and CMC suites are going to be out to lunch with their having way too much development. Go with the Euro/EPS until further notice meaning weak/south non-threatening track with regard to SE US until further notice. So, great news at least for now. Hopefully the rest of the season will be filled with mainly struggling systems like this even if there are 20+ of them.
 
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What is this line on this weather channel map?? Origin for tropical storms??? Saw this last night and was the only thing I could thing of. 208588C1-8018-457C-A381-3A8EB4BB800C.png09EBFCF8-8A02-462C-ADB4-592BCFCB1940.pngEEE5F54C-9B7B-4630-8E00-96F40FF9B16B.pngC08D882D-74F5-4818-8892-5B2A19DC3A99.png
 
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