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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Brent said:
It's like the gfs and Euro have flipped a few runs ago the gfs had nothing lol
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I was thinking the same thing. Also interesting to note the trailing wave over the NE is much slower this run. So if it were to develop the window for a recurve is open on this run
 
Poimen said:
It’s too early to make any kind of educated guess regarding the future of this system beyond its approach to the Lesser Antilles.
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True but we can say majority of storms miss.
 
Most storms that form way out there never hit the US or even Bermuda for that matter. However, for the few that do, models most times are showing a recurve at this point. Nothing is off the table at all at this stage.
TW
 
Yes but this one has yet to develop and development will probably be slow. By the time it develops it could in a spot that favors a closer approach to the SE US, or maybe even a EC scenario. Time always tells. Thankfully there’s still plenty of time with this one.
 
Poimen said:
Yes but this one has yet to develop and development will probably be slow. By the time it develops it could in a spot that favors a closer approach to the SE US, or maybe even a EC scenario. Time always tells. Thankfully there’s still plenty of time with this one.
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Imo if it takes a longer time to get consolidated it’s gonna stay south and get shredded. Fingers crossed
 
Icon at 135 hr trough in the NE kicking out second wave diving into the plains. Any storm should be drawn more north as the NE trough swings by. As it exits and the next trough digs in the issue l plains we should get some ridging to build in the west Atlantic

icon_z500_vort_us_46.png
 
ICON wide right.

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Unlike yesterday's 18Z GEFS and similar to today's 0Z/6z, most GEFS members either recurve offshore or skirt the coast. I count only 10%/2 TS+ members that come well inland (one to GA/SC; other NC) compared to about 8 on the 18Z as opposed to either a coastal skirter or a recurver offshore (one TD also comes onshore NC):

1595783983587.png
 
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Later in the 12Z GEFS run better showing how either the offshore or coastal skimming route is heavily favored over something coming well inland:
1595784775475.png
 
12Z CMC ens, which is a generally inferior ensemble to the GEFS, still looks somewhat ominous with 3 (15%) FL hits, 1 (5%) Gulf hit, and 1 (5%) well inland NC hit. But even so, ~75% are either coastal scrapers or mainly offshore recurvers. So, still not too bad.

The best hope is that this either develops strongly early and then recurves well offshore or struggles and stays south through and near the Caribbean and never gets strong or even dissipates. Nothing too much to worry about at least for the time being.
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hanna, located inland over northeast Mexico.

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a wide area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward around 20 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next two or three days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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12z Euro continues the trend of speeding up our storm. Moving into the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday afternoon. Continues to be south of other guidance and takes it below the islands
 
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Brad P. had an excellent VLOG on Facebook. If you haven't taken the time to watch it, I would highly recommend it. Long story short, it's wayyyy too early to look at guidance or try and pinpoint if this thing makes landfall in the U.S. or not. And the lack of commercial airline traffic is causing issues as well for modeling.
 
ryan1234 said:
Brad P. had an excellent VLOG on Facebook. If you haven't taken the time to watch it, I would highly recommend it. Long story short, it's wayyyy too early to look at guidance or try and pinpoint if this thing makes landfall in the U.S. or not. And the lack of commercial airline traffic is causing issues as well for modeling.
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While that is true, the path of the storm over the next 96 hours has massive implications for its overall path. A path south of or over the islands dramatically decreases the chances of a land falling hurricane on the SE coast
 
One bad thing to note with recurves...they tend to trend west over time esp for systems that far out. Could easily hit Florida or anywhere.
 
Climatology favors recurve, but the last few year, it seems the model forecast trends, are usually are modeled too Far East early on, then correct W with time
 
Great trends in the models the last 24 hours. You can't ask for anything much better for now. Let's hope these better trends hold. No reason to worry currently in the SE US about this. Many of us, including myself, have much more worrisome things to deal with right now.
 
GaWx said:
Great trends in the models the last 24 hours. You can't ask for anything much better for now. Let's hope these better trends hold. No reason to worry currently in the SE US about this. Many of us, including myself, have much more worrisome things to deal with right now.
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I agree! From the morning runs I would say there was a clear trend for a weaker system. GFS and CMC both backed off the juiced up systems. Which imo was a step towards the Euro. I am very curious to see how this develops over the next 3 days. If it struggles to get stacked quickly it could very well go south of the islands and encounter some hostile conditions.
 
12Z EPS: Out of 51 members, only 5 (10%) hit the US as a full fledged TC:

1. TS SW/W FL
2. TS/H up FL/GA coasts
3. H GA/SC
4. H SC
5. H Wilmington, NC

Only 4 of these 5 (8% of the 51) really ever amount to anything bad.

Only 3 recurve as a TC offshore the E US (one of these 3 is very weak/TD).
Many others either never become a TC or become a weak one and then fall apart near the Greater Antilles and/or just remain a very weak entity down there.

So, the 12Z EPS suggests quite high odds in the favor of the SE US not being hit hard by 92L as of this time.
 
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