• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Idalia

metwannabe said:
Hurricane models going bonkers, shows potential if all comes together just right, dang
Click to expand...
I really think the key is on this organizing over the water today instead of being over land. It’s kinda worrisome that it’s basically going to be over water 24-36 longer than what models were showing yesterday
 
Chazwin said:
I really think the key is on this organizing over the water today instead of being over land. It’s kinda worrisome that it’s basically going to be over water 24-36 longer than what models were showing yesterday
Click to expand...
And any slight shifts west keep it over water a tad longer too, all bad signs
 
I don’t want to say I told you so or count the chickens before they hatch, but it was forecasted to move over the warmest waters in the Caribbean Sea and going into a scorching GOM this is not very surprising seeing this rapid organization. A stronger storm also favors more western movement. Even I got to admit I didn’t think it was going through look this food this fast. This definitely has a shot to be a good bit stronger than even I originally thought.
 
Micheal 2?

cbce86c5565dbb436f91d084e00f18a4.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This would be Idalia if it gets named next correct? I mentioned it before in the past, but beware “I” named storms. We got a really ? track record when it comes to named storms that start with the letter “I”.
Isabel
Ivan
Ike
Irene
Irma
Ida
Ian
 
iGRXY said:
I don’t want to say I told you so or count the chickens before they hatch, but it was forecasted to move over the warmest waters in the Caribbean Sea and going into a scorching GOM this is not very surprising seeing this rapid organization. A stronger storm also favors more western movement. Even I got to admit I didn’t think it was going through look this food this fast. This definitely has a shot to be a good bit stronger than even I originally thought.
Click to expand...
I could agree more. I’ve kept thinking while watching the models several days ago only showing this maxing out as a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane how they were showing the same thing a few years ago with Michael at that stage. Now unfortunately I can’t help but notice the similarities in Michael’s path compared to forecasts on this.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I wonder whether it being Late August vs October would make a difference. I imagine the waters are warmer than it was when Michael was in the Gulf.
Click to expand...
That was a very hot summer. It was over 100 degrees in the south, in October that year. Michael allowed for the first cool down of the fall.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I wonder whether it being Late August vs October would make a difference. I imagine the waters are warmer than it was when Michael was in the Gulf.
Click to expand...
I actually think the water temperatures are very similar to when Michael came in… maybe a degree or two warmer now. You got to remember that in 2018, there had been absolutely no cool weather to speak before Michael and all of September and the first few days of October has just been an extended summer for the entire southeast. Coincidentally it was Micheal that caused the pattern to flip.
 
Chazwin said:
I actually think the water temperatures are very similar to when Michael came in… maybe a degree or two warmer now. You got to remember that in 2018, there had been absolutely no cool weather to speak before Michael and all of September and the first few days of October has just been an extended summer for the entire southeast. Coincidentally it was Micheal that caused the pattern to flip.
Click to expand...
I wish this system would do the same and cause the pattern to flip but I guess Early September is too early to expect a lot of cool air.
 
MichaelAndrews said:
I’m glad I’m not the only one who sees this and think it’s Michael again
Click to expand...
While I’m the first to say the similarities can be seen, let’s remember that Michael literally had everything possible going for it on its approach to the coast. That RI cycle started at just the right time so that it hit max strength right at the moment of its landfall… something that I can only recall happening 3 times in my lifetime (Hugo going into SC, Andrew going into south Florida, and then Michael)
 
Chazwin said:
While I’m the first to say the similarities can be seen, let’s remember that Michael literally had everything possible going for it on its approach to the coast. That RI cycle started at just the right time so that it hit max strength right at the moment of its landfall… something that I can only recall happening 3 times in my lifetime (Hugo going into SC, Andrew going into south Florida, and then Michael)
Click to expand...

This is dead on. Michael had a huge influx of tropical moisture which protected the core from dry air and also a huge amount of ventilation aloft. This one will have plenty, but Michael was a total example of everything going perfect.
 
HMMMM something very wierd going on with Franklin and Odalia on the Euro. They are clearly interacting now as Franklin

Here is 12Ztoday

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_42.png



12Z yesterday Instead of zooming away NNE Franklin is interacting with Odalia and crawling ese. I would imagine nothing is set on Odalia yet.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png
 
iGRXY said:
I don’t want to say I told you so or count the chickens before they hatch, but it was forecasted to move over the warmest waters in the Caribbean Sea and going into a scorching GOM this is not very surprising seeing this rapid organization. A stronger storm also favors more western movement. Even I got to admit I didn’t think it was going through look this food this fast. This definitely has a shot to be a good bit stronger than even I originally thought.
Click to expand...
And how many times have we seen storms in the Gulf blow up rapidly the last few years?
 
lexxnchloe said:
HMMMM something very wierd going on with Franklin and Odalia on the Euro. They are clearly interacting now as Franklin

Here is 12Ztoday

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_42.png



12Z yesterday Instead of zooming away NNE Franklin is interacting with Odalia and crawling ese. I would imagine nothing is set on Odalia yet.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png
Click to expand...
I thinks that’s more of a reaction to Idalia being a stronger storm and interfering with the steering that would carry Franklin away. Another thing I’m noticing is that the Euro has the center of Idalia in almost the same spot two days from now that it appears to be organizing in now…it doesn’t seem to be in an area that it would just sit and spin for a couple days
 
Chazwin said:
Definitely an overall trend west with the clusters, however those far west outliers are beginning to correct east a bit. Certainly looks like to me that New Orleans to Big Bend might be the area to watch
Click to expand...

I don’t see any reason to not go with the Panama City area as bullseye ATM.
 
D-min doing its thing. Cloud tops have warmed quite a bit over the COC at this time. I still say TS by tonight.
 
lexxnchloe said:
They are clearly interacting on the Euro. Yes, thats Odalia moving south well SW of Bermuda

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_56.png
ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_56.png
Click to expand...
Ok if that were to happen then what’s next. Does another trough come in to carry it away or does a ridge build in to its north and steer back into the southeast coast
 
Chazwin said:
I thinks that’s more of a reaction to Idalia being a stronger storm and interfering with the steering that would carry Franklin away. Another thing I’m noticing is that the Euro has the center of Idalia in almost the same spot two days from now that it appears to be organizing in now…it doesn’t seem to be in an area that it would just sit and spin for a couple days
Click to expand...
At least we have fun things to track
 
lexxnchloe said:
This solution is so wierd i have no idea
Click to expand...
Yeah I mean the only Gulf storm that I have ever seen do that loop around and come back to the west was Ivan in 2004… that however was a remnant low that held back when a trough pulled away.., it moved slowly around a ridge of high pressure and redeveloped into a tropical storm a week later back in the Gulf. This would still be a fairly intact though significantly weakened TC.
 
It looks like it will head out but we have gfs saying it dies inland to the Euro having it 500 miles off the coast. Inbetween would be us, lol
 
lexxnchloe said:
Euro ends right over Bermuda but its safe to say its worth watching after FLA

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png
Click to expand...
I think the EURO has the general right idea on the track though I could definitely see it correcting to the west a bit going forward especially now that we have defined center. The bit question I have on it is it’s timing… I just don’t see why it’s holding the center in basically the same spot in two days as it is right now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top