Henry2326
Member
Be safe.....somebody will definitely need you tomorrow!!
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
18z HWRF AND HMON ARE 942 AND 943. In step all the way even location.
I've seen them similar but not this close.
NAM, still bombing out which means rapid intensification is highly predicted tonight.
More importantly, it agrees with location of the other 2.
18z GFS back down to 953 and same location as these other 3.
Translation: it will be a very bad day for New Orleans tomorrow. Be safe.
I've seen them similar but not this close.
NAM, still bombing out which means rapid intensification is highly predicted tonight.
More importantly, it agrees with location of the other 2.
18z GFS back down to 953 and same location as these other 3.
Translation: it will be a very bad day for New Orleans tomorrow. Be safe.
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Man the last thing we need is rapist intensification! Hope that holds off ?
Rapist intensification? Dear God....its worse than I thought.
Can you give a little more info?
Are you on tapatalk or web?
Was the file too big?
Do you have the attach file link?
Was the file type supported?
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Greg Fishel's thoughts.
IDA UPDATE
Central pressure has fallen below 970mb, so IDA is intensifying, and I expect it to continue to intensify until landfall late tomorrow afternoon. From a pressure perspective, Fran made landfall around 950 mb, Hugo around 934 mb, and Andrew and Katrina around 920 mb. I could easily see IDA getting below 950 mb, but getting into the 930’s and 920’s might be asking a bit much. Still this will be a dangerous, major hurricane when it strikes the Louisiana coast late tomorrow afternoon. The exact track will determine how bad the effects are in New Orleans, but residents there should prepare for the worst. It’s worth noting that the morning after Katrina made landfall, New Orleans was described as having dodged a bullet, because the track shifted the strongest winds to the east. It didn’t take long for that description to change when the levees broke. This storm could actually produce more dangerous weather in NOLA than Katrina did. I’ll update late tonight and then again tomorrow as landfall approaches.
IDA UPDATE
Central pressure has fallen below 970mb, so IDA is intensifying, and I expect it to continue to intensify until landfall late tomorrow afternoon. From a pressure perspective, Fran made landfall around 950 mb, Hugo around 934 mb, and Andrew and Katrina around 920 mb. I could easily see IDA getting below 950 mb, but getting into the 930’s and 920’s might be asking a bit much. Still this will be a dangerous, major hurricane when it strikes the Louisiana coast late tomorrow afternoon. The exact track will determine how bad the effects are in New Orleans, but residents there should prepare for the worst. It’s worth noting that the morning after Katrina made landfall, New Orleans was described as having dodged a bullet, because the track shifted the strongest winds to the east. It didn’t take long for that description to change when the levees broke. This storm could actually produce more dangerous weather in NOLA than Katrina did. I’ll update late tonight and then again tomorrow as landfall approaches.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Latest VDM has the eye at now 17 miles but the south end is open, which I think could be a the product of the eye shrinking asymmetrically with the new thunderstorms blowing up elsewhere.
Pressure down to 969 mb.
Per David Reimer, respected SVR chaser on the other board, “NOAA plane is doing a planned spiral ascent for some sort of research purpose. Once that is complete they'll head back down to 700 millibars and continue the recon mission.”
Henry2326
Member
Good video. Levi predicting cat 3 or 4, and says it doesn't really matter because the impacts will be severe.
Henry2326
Member
Ummmmm....landfall location????
Storm5
Member
I'll look
Damn. Savage
DadOfJax
Member
Right on track…west of NOLA
DadOfJax
Member
Anybody got any good web cam sites to see NOLA?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The arguing about where Ida is going is annoying.
Who's arguing?
Shaggy
Member
Should give us a good idea on how rapidly the pressure is falling. This extra delay should indicate if it's a slow steady fall.or the bottom falling out.
DadOfJax
Member
Post of the thread!!
Henry2326
Member
Brent
Member
Recon is absolute trash it's unacceptable
Storm5
Member
Brent
Member
Constant problems and apparently they aborted this mission the AF planes
Once the NOAA plane leaves there's a gap til about 3am it's ridiculous
Storm5
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Actually 965 mb.
Henry2326
Member
Shaggy
Member
People may heed this and get themselves stuck on a highway somewhere. Just an all around dangerous worst case scenario unfolding for NOLA.
Now 967 mb.
Also the eye is now closed off.
735
URNT12 KWBC 290054
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092021
A. 29/00:34:52Z
B. 26.73 deg N 087.73 deg W
C. 700 MB 2827 m
D. 967 mb
E. 130 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 87 kt
I. 309 deg 9 nm 00:32:28Z
J. 040 deg 74 kt
K. 294 deg 21 nm 00:28:54Z
L. 85 kt
M. 054 deg 21 nm 00:40:20Z
N. 135 deg 91 kt
O. 054 deg 22 nm 00:40:34Z
P. 10 C / 3059 m
Q. 16 C / 3071 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA2 1009A IDA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 054 / 22 NM 00:40:34Z
735
URNT12 KWBC 290054
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092021
A. 29/00:34:52Z
B. 26.73 deg N 087.73 deg W
C. 700 MB 2827 m
D. 967 mb
E. 130 deg 10 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 87 kt
I. 309 deg 9 nm 00:32:28Z
J. 040 deg 74 kt
K. 294 deg 21 nm 00:28:54Z
L. 85 kt
M. 054 deg 21 nm 00:40:20Z
N. 135 deg 91 kt
O. 054 deg 22 nm 00:40:34Z
P. 10 C / 3059 m
Q. 16 C / 3071 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm
U. NOAA2 1009A IDA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 91 KT 054 / 22 NM 00:40:34Z
Downeastnc
Member
00Z intensity guidance
