Henry2326
Member
Sunday to Monday.
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
It looks like shear is blasting it again.
Weather going to deteriorate quickly Sunday and probably LF Sunday night and it's going to be this bad I'm afraid
Sandbar
Member
Holy cow that thing is hauling, I better make a call....Thanks for the info!
Probably not far from making 2nd LF either, then once it clears Cuba it will be go time. Bet we are looking at a different beast come morning
pcbjr
Member
Brent
Member
Yeah theres supposed to be an anticyclone follow it to the coast which is the perfect setup to bomb it vents it and keeps shear at bay
Yup the central and eastern GOM will be primed and ready.
IMO Ida will be one of those storms that presents a CAT 5 storm surge but winds could downgrade to a CAT 2 right at landfall. This is why the CAT system is flawed IMO and has been discussed a lot since Katrina. Get out of Louisiana. Water will build and funnel whether it’s CAT2 to CAT5 it will NOT have time to lessen the impacts of storm surge. GET OUT NOW
I’m wondering if there’s a chance of EWRC before landfall.
Brent
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Basically the 18z SHIPS is forecasting ~25% chance of a category 5 hurricane. Actually not unreasonable at all
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
History likes to repeat itself
For now intensification is on hold with the interaction with Cuba … once we see that first blow up post Cuba … good luck everyone because I’m sure we are about to witness something spectacular on satellite imagery
DadOfJax
Member
Absolutely no way to make that statement with any confidence even as a seasoned Met…let alone a Tweeter expert follower
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Last IR frame shows what might be some new storm activity on the N and S sides of the storm. Have to see.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
It's going over very low terrain flat areas. So it shouldn't interact a while lot with the land I would think.
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Outflow much stronger and healthier tho with 2021 IDA you can tell on the east side including the bonus shrimp tail. Extreme healthy environment it’s finding there.
Folks we know the east side is gonna be the worst. 1) Geography of Louisiana will not change on us please use highly accurate storm surge maps 2) recon confirms like most systems the n/e quad is strongest 3) NHC is hooking right inland will rotate the worse effects north/east 4) I’m not claiming landfall anywhere impacts will still be widely felt
If it gets to a strong 4/5, I don’t see anything that would knock it down to a 2 before landfall. Based on timing, an ERC could knock it down to a 3. That said, I completely agree with you that any weakening prior to landfall doesn’t take away the surge. I would guess many areas are looking at 15-20 ft storm surge, which would put many areas well inland underwater. As for New Orleans, this may be the worst possible scenario… the city is just to the right of the center with winds pushing straight at the city for at least 24 hours.