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Tropical Hurricane Ida

I have fallen behind reading all the posts, but a lot of discussion of the storm going east or west of NO. Obviously if the storm is west of NO, that is very bad as the surge and worst of the wind potentially can be devastating.

However, correct me if I am wrong (and I’m sure someone will) Katrina, while very close to NO, was actually slightly east of NO and it was the heavy rain, coupled with wind coming from the N and NE which caused the levees to fail which flooded that bowl New Orleans sits in and created the major issues … more so than the actual eye wall … which nailed Biloxi and surrounding areas.

Either way, this is a dangerous storm and I pray people there take it seriously. My point is if the storm takes a similar path to Katrina AND the levees hold this time, NO will come out relatively ok compared to Katrina. (If someone has said the same thing, please forgive me!)
 
k0skinne said:
I have fallen behind reading all the posts, but a lot of discussion of the storm going east or west of NO. Obviously if the storm is west of NO, that is very bad as the surge and worst of the wind potentially can be devastating.

However, correct me if I am wrong (and I’m sure someone will) Katrina, while very close to NO, was actually slightly east of NO and it was the heavy rain, coupled with wind coming from the N and NE which caused the levees to fail which flooded that bowl New Orleans sits in and created the major issues … more so than the actual eye wall … which nailed Biloxi and surrounding areas.

Either way, this is a dangerous storm and I pray people there take it seriously. My point is if the storm takes a similar path to Katrina AND the levees hold this time, NO will come out relatively ok compared to Katrina. (If someone has said the same thing, please forgive me!)
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Yeah if you recall New Orleans didn't flood til hours later the initial reports around noon were the city escaped because the wind wasn't that impressive on the west side(it was rapidly weakening at landfall)
 
k0skinne said:
I have fallen behind reading all the posts, but a lot of discussion of the storm going east or west of NO. Obviously if the storm is west of NO, that is very bad as the surge and worst of the wind potentially can be devastating.

However, correct me if I am wrong (and I’m sure someone will) Katrina, while very close to NO, was actually slightly east of NO and it was the heavy rain, coupled with wind coming from the N and NE which caused the levees to fail which flooded that bowl New Orleans sits in and created the major issues … more so than the actual eye wall … which nailed Biloxi and surrounding areas.

Either way, this is a dangerous storm and I pray people there take it seriously. My point is if the storm takes a similar path to Katrina AND the levees hold this time, NO will come out relatively ok compared to Katrina. (If someone has said the same thing, please forgive me!)
Click to expand...
There was significant surge into NO from the Gulf, but that did recede as eye passed just to the east and the winds turned from the north. However that was when many levees that blocked Lake Pontchatrain failed and inundated areas that were below the level of the lake.
 
140 mph forecast!

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border
including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf
coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the coast
of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.

155544_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Thanks folks for the info. Daughter who is raised on Earthquakes not 140mph wind and 12” of rain has been instructed to launch out of Baton Rouge and head to Tx to stay with her friend. I appreciate Y’alls passion on this and your conveyance of good realistic info. Keep up the good work !

-LSU DAD
 
Brent said:
140 mph forecast!

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border
including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf
coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the coast
of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.

View attachment 89382
Click to expand...
I'm so used to a delay in warnings thst this actually surprised me although I agree with it 100%.
 
The amount of weakening as it approaches the coast is dependent on a couple of factors. If it slows down as it nears landfall, then the interaction will water a little cooler and much shallower than at peak intensity will weaken it some. However if it makes a beeline at 15-20+mph there will not be much weakening as it hits the shallower water on the coast line. Also the slower it goes as landfall approaches, the more dry air can get pulled into the system. Lots of factors in play here from the track, peak intensity and speed of the storm
 
MichaelJ said:
The amount of weakening as it approaches the coast is dependent on a couple of factors. If it slows down as it nears landfall, then the interaction will water a little cooler and much shallower than at peak intensity will weaken it some. However if it makes a beeline at 15-20+mph there will not be much weakening as it hits the shallower water on the coast line. Also the slower it goes as landfall approaches, the more dry air can get pulled into the system. Lots of factors in play here from the track, peak intensity and speed of the storm
Click to expand...
Another factor is when the turn to the north takes place. If it takes place early like the EURO shows then you have the eyeball hitting the coast at a 90 degree angle, which only adds to the surge impacts.

Also looking at the IR satellite…is this thing actually strengthening over land?
 
KyloG said:
Holy crap…someone had there Wheaties this morning. ?

View attachment 89384
Click to expand...
even with interaction on cuba it doesn't seem to be slowing development down much. Not a good sign if you want weaker impacts. We'll prob see the next phase of RI tomorrow and an eye develop then as it clears the less favorable areas and hits the prime area for growth.
 
Henry2326 said:
I'm so used to a delay in warnings thst this actually surprised me although I agree with it 100%.
Click to expand...

I'm sure they are trying to get ahead of it since theres so much potential. They see the same models we do and they have more we don't see most likely showing the same thing
 
Greg Fishel says a cat 5 is possible.

QUICK UPDATE ON IDA

It’s looking scarier and scarier for the Gulf Coast, especially Louisiana. If you’ve followed me over the years, you know I don’t believe in traditional media hype, but one can get too conservative, so conservative that one misses the big events. Yesterday I told you I was very concerned about Ida, and the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates they are too. They’re forecasting a Cat 4 hurricane to be approaching the Louisiana coast late Sunday and Sunday Evening. That seems very realistic to me, and I wouldn’t even rule out Cat 5, because of the high ocean heat content. I’ll keep you posted!
 
Chazwin said:
Some of the newer modeling is trying to weaken the ridge earlier and move it east a tad.
Click to expand...

A trend to watch. We may not know the full extent of the east shift till tomorrow sometime. Especially as ida moves inland


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Jessy89 said:
A trend to watch. We may not know the full extent of the east shift till tomorrow sometime. Especially as ida moves inland


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Click to expand...
I agree. I personally don’t see the landfall shifting east of New Orleans, but I do think that we could see a sharper turn to the NE and east once once inland.
 
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