yeah you know how these things are though, wind speeds lag a little, shoot it's been stronger on every Recon pass.... that is saying something
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Z
Zander98al
Guest
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Z
Zander98al
Guest
I'm beginning to think models are a good bit undone. I think highly unlikely this thing does not make landfall as a category 4 or 5. And right now I feel firmly a 5. Is the likeliest. Too much energy.
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When you have the Euro showing pressure like that you know it isn’t good.
NoSnowATL
Member
Probably going to hit as a Cat 5, at least a 4. Upper levels look great and SSTs are rocket fuel. Should develop good outflow channels and not have to contend with much in the way of dry air. Barring an ERC, it's going to be bad. And it's going to be piling up a lot of water.
Another thing of note, the Euro gives it a quicker north turn right before landfall. The timing of the turn and the coastline could change landfall a hundred miles East or west in a hurry.
DadOfJax
Member
What all is going on that makes you think this.....just Twitter tweets?
RollTide18
Member
Question: Will the center going over Cuba (albeit a small sliver of Cuba) have any impact on the storm?
smast16
Member
Looks like she took another gulp of dry air evident by some OFB's. Theres a faint one in that circle on the south side.
NWMSGuy
Member
Any idea's to whether we see additional shifts in track? Looks like track is tightly clustered for now.
Henry2326
Member
GFS has I at 987 and HWRF at 990 coming off the island. After that it really doesn't impact because the environment is so favorable in the gulf.
pcbjr
Member
They (the models and corresponding tracks) are tight right now, but this can give some good idea of tendencies over time ... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/IDA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line
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Unlikely but worst side will likely be NOLA east. West side usually weaker.
Henry2326
Member
I wouldn’t go on to say this is making a CAT 5 landfall … those are rare for a reason .. not many storms have the ability to maintain that kind of strength for so long .. it takes absolute perfect conditions to be able to sustain that type of vertically stacked convection for a sustained time … I could also see an eye wall replacement cycle possibly helping us out in hampering it from staying CAT 5 all the way until landfall … although we know our luck hasn’t been great as of recently in terms of storms rapidly intensifying all the way to landfall .. doesn’t mean it will happen every time … regardless of the category this will impact the lives of very many people in a very significant and unheard of way.. it’s time to focus on impacts and conveying those impacts to those in the path!
MichaelJ
Member
People from just west of New Orleans to Mobile should watch this very carefully. It is likely to follow the boundary of the anticyclone which currently predicts a slight weakening in the eastern edge after day 2 which would allow it to come further east than the current model tracks. Start praying for New Orleans
Brent
Member
Good grief
Henry2326
Member
The worse 24 hours I've ever seen......
Sandbar
Member
What is the timetable for this landfall? I will probably get sent down with our REDS Team if it's this bad