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Tropical Hurricane Ida

18z GFS looks a tick northeast of the 12z run through 30 hours. Still definitely playing catch-up on the pressure numbers. Let’s see where this ends up.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
I heard that to from a local Meteo here.
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Also the orientation of the ridge is important as well. I’m not saying that the ridge isn’t strong… all I’m saying is that we’ve seen hints of it breaking down and shift east a bit sooner. Again I don’t think it will make much of a difference in terms of landfall as central to se Louisiana appears to be set. Where we could see the difference is a further east inland track Tuesday-Thursday.
 
metwannabe said:
It would take a massive colossal collapse of a mega ridge to get this east like some of you think. Can it slide east of NOLA maybe but that's the extent of it and most likely won't happen
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Your right. Although, I'm not expecting a big shift east at all but I can see little east of NOLA closer to the MS line. Which would put my area and Mobile in the danger zone more.
 
Chazwin said:
Also the orientation of the ridge is important as well. I’m not saying that the ridge isn’t strong… all I’m saying is that we’ve seen hints of it breaking down and shift east a bit sooner. Again I don’t think it will make much of a difference in terms of landfall as central to se Louisiana appears to be set. Where we could see the difference is a further east inland track Tuesday-Thursday.
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And if you look at the forecast cone. The NHC leaves the door open for a more east shift. A track through north Georgia into the upstate would change things for some vs a Track into Tennessee. Something to watch


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k0skinne said:
I have fallen behind reading all the posts, but a lot of discussion of the storm going east or west of NO. Obviously if the storm is west of NO, that is very bad as the surge and worst of the wind potentially can be devastating.

However, correct me if I am wrong (and I’m sure someone will) Katrina, while very close to NO, was actually slightly east of NO and it was the heavy rain, coupled with wind coming from the N and NE which caused the levees to fail which flooded that bowl New Orleans sits in and created the major issues … more so than the actual eye wall … which nailed Biloxi and surrounding areas.

Either way, this is a dangerous storm and I pray people there take it seriously. My point is if the storm takes a similar path to Katrina AND the levees hold this time, NO will come out relatively ok compared to Katrina. (If someone has said the same thing, please forgive me!)
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Really the only person continuously wishcasting this thing east right now it BirdManDoom….and he’s just cherry picking TwitterBook posts. Everyone is pretty much on the same page….it’s unknown if this is a NOLA hit or slightly west….in the end, it won’t matter much.
 
I will say it now….so you can reference back to it. Models will underestimate and breakdown the ridge way too soon….they always do, in every season, every pattern….this is no different.
 
I worked the aftermath of Katrina.
A 28' surge came in at biloxi. Katrina had weakened to a 3 but kept it's 5 surge.
It's "possible" that this could do the same if it gets to that level and slows.

I pray people get out of Idas way. This isn't one to "ride out".
 
Chazwin said:
I agree. I personally don’t see the landfall shifting east of New Orleans, but I do think that we could see a sharper turn to the NE and east once once inland.
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en.wikipedia.org

Hurricane Danny (1985) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
I wonder if we could possibly get a track like this one. It dropped a ton of rain in parts of NC and SC along with a few tornadoes as it passed by.
 
MichaelJ said:
The amount of weakening as it approaches the coast is dependent on a couple of factors. If it slows down as it nears landfall, then the interaction will water a little cooler and much shallower than at peak intensity will weaken it some. However if it makes a beeline at 15-20+mph there will not be much weakening as it hits the shallower water on the coast line. Also the slower it goes as landfall approaches, the more dry air can get pulled into the system. Lots of factors in play here from the track, peak intensity and speed of the storm
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A slowdown before landfall is my hope and that would hopefully weaken it somewhat before landfall. The Euro especially has it slowing down quite a bit then.
 
GaWx said:
A slowdown before landfall is my hope and that would hopefully weaken it somewhat before landfall. The Euro especially has it slowing down quite a bit then.
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Bad for surge and flooding rains … would prefer it smack and leave not much difference between 4/5 winds surge factor already massive … there’s not much getting around this being very bad
 
GaWx said:
A slowdown before landfall is my hope and that would hopefully weaken it somewhat before landfall. The Euro especially has it slowing down quite a bit then.
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Problem is a slowdown would also prolong the effects and pile up more water on both the surge and add rain measured in feet..
It's really taking the lesser of two evils of devastating effects...virtually a no win scenario (Nature's Kobayashi Maru Test and you need Capt Kirk to cheat the system)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly at this stage where we’re just waiting on a big Convective blowup that rotates upshear and closes off any openings in the eyewall and warms the core, which will happen, especially when it goes back over water
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At current motion it won't be over Cuba very long and it won't be disturbed much at all
 
If you are in New Orleans right now and considering whether or not to leave, please just start packing and get out of harms way. It's not worth betting your life on a slim chance that this thing weakens between now and Sunday. And even if it does the surge and flooding may be just as bad.
 
Henry2326 said:
If you are in New Orleans right now and considering whether or not to leave, please just start packing and get out of harms way. It's not worth betting your life on a slim chance that this thing weakens between now and Sunday. And even if it does the surge and flooding may be just as bad.
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... Hail Mary ... pray for us sinners now and at the hour of our death ...
 
Tornadocane said:
What ing the flying F are they F-ing doing in New Orleans? Is this for real?
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The issue is there's not enough time to evacuate 1.2+ million people within 36ish hours. The logistics of evacuating a large metro city such as Nola are insanely complicated. A botched mandatory evacuation of New Orleans would be unfathomable.
 
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