Tropical Hurricane Ida

[wxdaniel]

Agreed. I wonder how close this might develop to Jamaica......I think the East shift, Short term only, in the models will continue today.

That's just it, Whenever this potential storm officially has a sustainable center is when the models get a grip on the path and strength. Just looking at the ensembles I don't think many has a path off the coast of Jamaica. I would also like to keep a watch on that area of high pressure on the Atlantic now. It has been slowly pushing out to sea every run.

 

[tstorm]

IMO, it could be....however there is plenty of inflow going into what's going on N of Jamaica as well.

Potential center just south of Jamaica on radar. It shows up better on animation but did not know how to upload it.

 

[SD]

Potential center just south of Jamaica on radar. It shows up better on animation but did not know how to upload it.

View attachment 89186

You got the link to this? Good find

 

[tstorm]

You got the link to this? Good find

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

 

[SD]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

Awesome appreciate it!

 

[SD]

Potential center just south of Jamaica on radar. It shows up better on animation but did not know how to upload it.

View attachment 89186

Here you go

 

[tstorm]

Awesome appreciate it!

Your welcome
This link will give you all the Cuba radars. This will be helpful as it gets closer to Cuba.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Could see another tornado outbreak for western NC if euro is right we could end up on the right dirty side yet again…

 

[smast16]

Yeah tbh, I hate to wish this but almost need that ridge slightly stronger to keep the track west of the Apps, western NC does not need any rain right now

excuse me?

With more visible images now it looks like there could be something around 78.5 and 16.5 give or take a little.

Definitely some westerly flow on the southern end showing up. All systems go.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

TD9 is here and now we will soon get very fast updates up until landfall (multiple landfalls poss). Recon will get busy.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

Could see another tornado outbreak for western NC if euro is right we could end up on the right dirty side yet again…

That can be said for a lot of other territory than just NC..

 

[Metwannabe]

And here we go

 

[Brent]

110 mph forecast already

 

[SD]

That can be said for a lot of other territory than just NC..

Indeed. Especially with this thing taking a long slow track around the region

 

[SD]

Good lord the 3k nam

 

[Brent]

From the NHC discussion

Once the system moves into the Gulf of
Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in
the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches
the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the
HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model
guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf
of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence
that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf
this weekend.

 

[Metwannabe]

Good lord the 3k nam

modernweenie

 

[Brent]

modernweenie
View attachment 89193

Katrina Part 2!

 

[jackendrickwx]

modernweenie
View attachment 89193

Is it weenie to say the NAM being this overzealous (while normal) is at least somewhat indicative of the opportunity for intensification?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Is it weenie to say the NAM being this overzealous (while normal) is at least somewhat indicative of the opportunity for intensification?

After looking at the other models, yes, yes it is weenie to say that