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Tropical Hurricane Ida

0z GFS stronger than the 12z GFS.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png
 
Looks like the east trend is over for now and like the icon the gfs ticks west and is stronger than the 18z runs. Little surprised actually. I though the center relocation would have led to a slight east bump.
 

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Well I definitely think in the short term that Western Tip of Cuba is not very likely. There shouldn't be another significant center reform east with hot towers going up around the center.

Outflow is becoming fairly well established with what currently looks like the poleward outflow hinting at where Ida crosses Cuba.
No doubt, the shear over Ida is relaxing, especially high aloft. (Could be some undercut under 250mb).
 
Crazy how that bubble of extra high ocean heat content just happens to be in the perfect position for a relatively maximum usage from IDA … it just looks like a recipe for something spectacular to be witnessed .. but maybe it’s just more run of the mill … I think not F2314BDC-AE81-4A2A-9726-244E90C0FAB2.png
 
I've got "Fishing Friends" on a fishing board that often fish those Oil Rigs Waaay out in the Gulf, (100 plus miles), I'm talking over night Trips w/fuel bladders too get themselves, *Out Der* & back, they are reporting 91~92 F Loop current waters out there..
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Crazy how that bubble of extra high ocean heat content just happens to be in the perfect position for a relatively maximum usage from IDA … it just looks like a recipe for something spectacular to be witnessed .. but maybe it’s just more run of the mill … I think not View attachment 89280
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It looks more bad than 2017.
 
wow, this thing barely getting started south of Cuba and already spreading cirrus up to Orlando. woof. well, with bathtub water temps ahead and shear going away, and it being late August, I wanna say this one ends up with a max intensity at cat 3/4, with landfall at cat 2/3. also I wanna say a tick east based on the seasonal trends, so somewhere eastern LA or western MS.
 
deltadog03 said:
Recon is on the way. Let's see where the true center is. I expect a 50+ TS when they get there.
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It sucks because it's night time but the vis/IR loop shows the low cloud field really accelerating into the LLC. Wouldn't be surprised if they find a much better LLC this time and a strengthening storm.
 
Shaggy said:
It sucks because it's night time but the vis/IR loop shows the low cloud field really accelerating into the LLC. Wouldn't be surprised if they find a much better LLC this time and a strengthening storm.
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I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE, THEM CLOUDS ARE RACING TO THAT LLC AND THEM HOT TOWERS TO THE NORTH ARE FIRING OFF RAPIDLY
 
I'm a goof. That was an upper level mission. I think we have to wait a little longer for recon.
 
Much improved over yesterday but still work to do. The storms over the center look a little beat up still. Once we see that big symmetric CDO then we know it's really gonna take off.

Still wouldn't surprise me to see a 50mph storm when recon gets in there.
 
Shaggy said:
Much improved over yesterday but still work to do. The storms over the center look a little beat up still. Once we see that big symmetric CDO then we know it's really gonna take off.

Still wouldn't surprise me to see a 50mph storm when recon gets in there.
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THEY NEED MASH THAT SKINNY PEDAL AND GET ON OUT THERE. BUNCH OF PEPAW DRIVERS ?
 
From FFC, KATL:

The forecast from Tuesday on is highly dependent on changes to the
forecast track of Tropical Storm Ida. As of this update, the latest
NHC track has landfall occurring in SE LA, followed by movement to
the northeast once over land. At the very least, this track places a
broad swath of tropical moisture over our area, likely to be
accompanied by widespread showers and storms and periods of heavy
rainfall. The orientation of the storm as it moves off to our north
and west on Wednesday (placing us in the right front quadrant)
suggests there may be a severe concern, but this is again contingent
on how quickly Ida weakens over land and the finalized track and
intensity forecast. For now, have left PoPs at high end chance to
likely as we await further guidance.

NListemaa/Hochstatter
 
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