The hires fv3 is relatively east and looks east of the 6z gfs in the central gulf. Interesting to see the if the gfs itself ticks east again. All things considered until recon pins down a center it's all meh
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Tropical Hurricane Ida
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Indeed. It has a tendency to feed back on convection and go bonkers.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is gonna be bad
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Geez
Seems like most models have some level of west turn over the gulf before turning back N
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like this is really going to take off Saturday and then make landfall 48 hours later.
Icon is a few inches west of its 6z run. Still want recon to get into the system and get that data into the runs but overall it seems like the LA coast is a good bet just whether it's toward the NOLA side or toward the areas that got hit twice last year
HSVweather
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Seems like a pretty safe bet already. The only thing that's really going to stop this storm at this point is itself.
Brent
Member
Yeah the fact the conservative NHC went 110 on the first advisory
I mean I figured there were already enough alarm bells but thats just the cherry on top it's gonna be a lot stronger most likely
HugeSnowStick
Member
From FFC, KATL:
Late Monday and beyond are contingent on the track and intensity
of the latest tropical system, progged to move into the Gulf late
this weekend. Subsequent model runs have shown an eastward shift
in forecast track, which could push tropical moisture our way by
midweek, but uncertainty remains a key player this far out. Best
to hedge our bets at this point, so have capped PoPs at chance;
expect changes to this period in future grid updates as guidance
improves.
NListemaa/Hochstatter
Late Monday and beyond are contingent on the track and intensity
of the latest tropical system, progged to move into the Gulf late
this weekend. Subsequent model runs have shown an eastward shift
in forecast track, which could push tropical moisture our way by
midweek, but uncertainty remains a key player this far out. Best
to hedge our bets at this point, so have capped PoPs at chance;
expect changes to this period in future grid updates as guidance
improves.
NListemaa/Hochstatter
So before we get too deep in the woods here since this looks like it could be a huge deal for the gulf coast and spread impacts inland how do you guys feel about having an inland impact thread for this? I doubt most people who want to read about the storm want to sift through posts about rainfall/tornado potential 3 days later. Give me your feedback here or you can pm me
Cutoff under the -NAO block and how fast it squishes and destroys the ridge/lowers heights over us could shift this thing back west or east, we’re seeing the trend to a recurve into the eastern SE but typically models under do ridge strength right close to verification, which could mean a landfall slightly further west, should be interesting
Separate thread please I don’t want to be disrespectful to those that are gonna get more directly impacted/or track it up to landfall and clutter things up, at the end of the day the areas that are effected right at landfall are gonna feel far more effects then us further east, 2 threads just make it easier
I already know your thoughts but to be honest do people really want to come here and get an update about the storm want to read about tornadoes in Wilkes or whether or not mby will get .25 or .5 when we can have a post landfall impacts thread? It's going to get really messy if we don't split since it's going to take 4-5 days for this to move through