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Tropical Hurricane Ida

Man I really don't see how this thing wouldn't reach a category 4 or 5. Just common sense is telling me a category 3 is way underestimated. Just get the gut feeling that this will be a very very strong hurricane. It's got too good of environment if anything

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Seems most if not all models have shifted slightly west, putting NOLA on the worse side of the storm and here is the EPS (if it's been posted previously I apologize, slow morning lol)

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metwannabe said:
Seems most if not all models have shifted slightly west, putting NOLA on the worse side of the storm and here is the EPS (if it's been posted previously I apologize, slow morning lol)

View attachment 89294
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I'd say that consensus is the worst. It sets the stage for severe episodes over the south and puts one of the largest cities in the south on the highest storm surge of ida. Recipe for trouble.

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Ida certainly has that young cyclone resolving its inner core and fighting a few other factors look this morning. It'll be interesting to see if this new blow up of storms near the center can maintain itself. Once this passes the tip of Cuba the environment becomes much more favorable
 
If this thing reaches a cat 3 or 4 people need to get the hell out by any means possible or we "could" see a repeat of 05.
I lived through that.
 
metwannabe said:
Seems most if not all models have shifted slightly west, putting NOLA on the worse side of the storm and here is the EPS (if it's been posted previously I apologize, slow morning lol)

View attachment 89294
Click to expand...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears the latest recon data puts the CoC within the red circle. Are we still dealing with a MLC displaced from the LLC?

InkedIda_LI.jpg
 
Bannerdude said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears the latest recon data puts the CoC within the red circle. Are we still dealing with a MLC displaced from the LLC?

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Might be a little tilted due to some SW shear but yeah the center is NE of where the Euro initialized. However, in the end models are showing a strong ridge that continues to extend westward keeping the track left of NOLA at this time. We'll see what the 12z models look like with new data and how the initialize the center
 
FL winds continue to increase and deep convection right over the LLC, might make a run at H before Cuba

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SD said:
One thing I have noticed the last couple of years the storms that have undergone RI have had this 9 structure with a tail of deep convection to the SE
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Doesn’t that look and evolution, cause dry air to get pulled into the system between the tail and body of the storm? Hard to get a giant buzz saw - like storm with the tail? Am I totally off?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Doesn’t that look and evolution, cause dry air to get pulled into the system between the tail and body of the storm? Hard to get a giant buzz saw - like storm with the tail? Am I totally off?
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You'd think so. I saw a Twitter thread about this last hurricane season and I'm looking to find it.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Doesn’t that look and evolution, cause dry air to get pulled into the system between the tail and body of the storm? Hard to get a giant buzz saw - like storm with the tail? Am I totally off?
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Here is when Dorian had something similar
Screenshot_20210827-085924_YouTube.jpg

I'm probably making this too simplistic and to be honest tbh I just remembered this tail on some systems before they went boom
 
GFS and HWRF still holding at 950 and 940, similar to yesterday.

Also bizarre, Katrina formed on August 23, 2005 and dissipated on August 31, 2005.
History is repeating.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Doesn’t that look and evolution, cause dry air to get pulled into the system between the tail and body of the storm? Hard to get a giant buzz saw - like storm with the tail? Am I totally off?
Click to expand...
I'm not Met, but i do think it can, however, i think what SD is latching on to is the system has a long / rich feed of moisture into the system.
 
Not surprisingly, the TABD statistical model shows a stronger, earlier storm is more likely to landfall further east. It Ups the ante for a SE Louisiana landfall if it deepens faster, earlier IMO.
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I think in the short term you still have a little correcting/shifting NE with the LLC (to properly align with the deep convection) and then once clears Cuba, it has a better shot w/o the shear. As of now, I would say 120 mph landfall over NOLA. My best guess at this point.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Not surprisingly, the TABD statistical model shows a stronger, earlier storm is more likely to landfall further east. It Ups the ante for a SE Louisiana landfall if it deepens faster, earlier IMO.
View attachment 89309View attachment 89309
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Could be but something to think about, while a stronger storm typically moves more NE, a stronger storm can also move farther west if it explodes and pumps the ridge to its north.

Should be quite a show to resolve.
 
jrips27 said:



Unrelated system but this is not good in addition to the 12-18” coming from IDA
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Wow, that is not good. Looking at New Orleans forecast for today and tomorrow they are expecting a lot of rain prior to Ida arriving. This could also complicate potential evacuations.
 
Scotty Powell just said everyone in the Carolinas need to rush the gas stations now before they increase price or not have any. I’m gonna disagree with this plz don’t create panic just unfollow these people who create panic buying. I hate social media
 
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