I like the way Alan does this
That euro track reminds me of how Ivan made a gulf landfall circled the ridge and regenerated. How the trough/system interact will have big implications for our area. Climo says this gets pulled west and north of usThat ridge over us is gonna be stout so it likely isn't coming much further east.
for Tennessee and the mountains of NC that have been devastated by flooding the track differences later are huge. GFs is up the west spine of the mountains and out through areas just flooded by Henri while Euro goes from Memphis to Pigeon Forge.
Major differences and will be directly driven by how this ridge over us breaks down.
Which could be bad for parts Tennessee… can’t take much more what happened past week with major floodingGood news a good portion of the SE will receive rain regardless of where this makes landfall .
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I have a feeling that recon will find a td today. I find how the convection propagates northward on the IR images interestingI think we might have a LLC just SW of Jamaica just solely based on my untrained eye of satellite images
Good for some, horrible news for TN/NCGood news a good portion of the SE will receive rain regardless of where this makes landfall .
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I think we might have a LLC just SW of Jamaica just solely based on my untrained eye of satellite images
With more visible images now it looks like there could be something around 78.5 and 16.5 give or take a little.
Where are you seeing those numbers at?
That loop is mesmerizing. You can see the lower level rotation occurring and a ton of convection all over. Looks like it may be starting to organize a little.Nothing official just my observations of the low clouds. Could also be a MLC over to the western tip of Jamaica as well.
Agreed. I wonder how close this might develop to Jamaica......I think the East shift, Short term only, in the models will continue today.I have a feeling that recon will find a td today. I find how the convection propagates northward on the IR images interesting
That loop is mesmerizing. You can see the lower level rotation occurring and a ton of convection all over. Looks like it may be starting to organize a little.
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine, located over the west-central Caribbean Sea, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC). |
IMO, it could be....however there is plenty of inflow going into what's going on N of Jamaica as well.This is wear my aging eyes suspect the LLC is developing based on visible.