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Tropical Hurricane Ian

One thing to note about this east trend is the shape of the east coast is similiar to the west coast of Florida in how a small shift can change landfall point. If it goes 40 miles west it hits Savanah but 40 miles east is Charleston or Myrtle Beach. 60 miles east is Wilmington. So small changes can still change big things.
 
Pressure 957mb in NW eyewall with 67kt winds, so I'm guessing pressure in center still low 950s. Seems to be holding steady

recon_NOAA3-2509A-IAN_dropsonde4_20220927-2159.png
 
Not far off from what the Icon and UK are showing, they have come a little further down the coast. Actually a fairly good consensus for a landfall between Savannah and Georgetown
 
FWIW it appears that the local Futurecast models here in the CLT all are in line with the Euro/GFS/ICON/UK idea of a landfall off the Atlantic between Savannah and Georgetown. Then it brings up to stall out NW of Columbia.
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 83.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
947 mb.
 
I mean good god! Latest HWRF now has strengthening IAN into the 920s… these models do the best the closer we get to a land falling event .. this is concerning View attachment 122328

Not surprised. This is what I was saying a few days ago. These things have blown up like crazy in the Gulf the past few years.
 
One has to go back to Hurricane Charley (2004), wow, it's been that long, for a storm of similar significance impacting SW FL. Charley was ~941 at landfall, very tight circulation, for those who remember Port Charlotte got rocked. Ian will likely come in just north of where Charley did but not by much, and a much larger system.

Refresher on central FL, best case scenario once he clears the coast if the track holds. St. Pete will see bay side surge, as opposed to 10-15' up Tampa Bay, big difference. Fort Myers on the other hand will likely eclipse Charley's surge and one for the books.

On the east coast of FL one wants to be in the left front for a smoke show, on the west coast its kinda the opposite, right rear.

Screen Shot 2022-09-27 at 7.00.10 PM.png
 
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Not surprised. This is what I was saying a few days ago. These things have blown up like crazy in the Gulf the past few years.
Let’s remember though, this would not have happened this close to landfall had the storm stayed a little west and gone in at the Big Bend or Panhandle like things looked a couple days ago. The conditions at this latitude were always going to be conducive for major strengthening. With it taking the path it’s taking, the area of strong shear might actually being aiding it allowing the storm to vent and have a strong outflow
 
Let’s remember though, this would not have happened this close to landfall had the storm stayed a little west and gone in at the Big Bend or Panhandle like things looked a couple days ago. The conditions at this latitude were always going to be conducive for major strengthening. With it taking the path it’s taking, the area of strong shear might actually being aiding it allowing the storm to vent and have a strong outflow
Yep. Last run of the Euro has the anticyclone on top of the system until landfall at this track.
 
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