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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Chazwin said:
As much as I blast the ICON, it’s hard to ignore it with the UK being so similar and other models moving in that direction. As for getting stronger before a possible SC landfall, I think it will all depend on how long the center is over water and if it gets any influence with the Gulf Stream.
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This is beginning to be a cause for concern if it does get out there and get to cat 2-3 again for major impacts inland in NC and SC assuming the NW track on the icon verifies. Wind would be a much bigger problem for many of us along with a ton of rain.
 
IF ian emerges over the Atlantic, I can't see anything past a weak cat 1... I'm more impressed at how the icon, a model a lot of us crapped on for being crazy has held so steady... Considering it's a German model without a major focus on tropical weather
 
JHS said:
This is beginning to be a cause for concern if it does get out there and get to cat 2-3 again for major impacts inland in NC and SC assuming the NW track on the icon verifies. Wind would be a much bigger problem for many of us along with a ton of rain.
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If you were evacuating the low country, you'd literally have to start today to not have complete gridlock. It's not even so much the winds, it's the water it's going to push in the harbor from that direction.
 
has the icon ever scored a coup? has there ever been a situation where it blew every other model out of the water. there's probably a reason there's no "the icon nailed XXXXXXX" memes
 
GFS does not exit into the Atl but appears to get closer than it's previous runs, so a slight shift eastward.
 
ILMRoss said:
has the icon ever scored a coup? has there ever been a situation where it blew every other model out of the water. there's probably a reason there's no "the icon nailed XXXXXXX" memes
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Honestly, if that track verifies, I wouldn't call it an ICON coup lol. Euro had this early on actually, as you know, and Uk has been steady with it too. Probably more a blind squirrel thing
 
ILMRoss said:
has the icon ever scored a coup? has there ever been a situation where it blew every other model out of the water. there's probably a reason there's no "the icon nailed XXXXXXX" memes
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It did with a winter storm. It pulls a rabbit every blue moon. Beleive it was Lookout on another wx board who introduced some of us to this model.
 
iGRXY said:
Exactly. At the end of the day the biggest thing that drives these things is the fuel and ocean water temps. The gulf stream and waters off the SC and Georgia coast are in the mid 80's which is plenty to help get it's act together again. A potential 2nd landfall as a category 1 hurricane isn't out of the question in my book if it makes it off the coast.
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Absolutely… also there is a history of storm being able to reintensify in that area.
 
12z GFS & 12z CMC shifts east closer to Atlantic before west turn. This is worrisome for folks here in Lowcountry of SC who is thinking this will be a weak storm approaching.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
GFS looks much further NW in the GA, SC, NC areas.
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And it just sits over GA for a long time. IF, and it's a big if of course, this verifies, means a ton of rain over western NC and SC unless coastal convection cuts the moisture off. May be big problems from Oconee county SC up to Caldwell county NC with flooding.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
12z GFS & 12z CMC shifts east closer to Atlantic before west turn. This is worrisome for folks here in Lowcountry of SC who is thinking this will be a weak storm approaching.
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Do we not think that the time spent inland will dramatically weaken the storm, and do we not also think the limited time in the atlantic won't be enough to intensify it? I have no clue.
 
Ian is starting to regain strength. 961 mb on the dropsonde.
recon_AF302-2109A-IAN.png
 
Avalanche said:
Do we not think that the time spent inland will dramatically weaken the storm, and do we not also think the limited time in the atlantic won't be enough to intensify it? I have no clue.
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It will certainly weaken the storm significantly, but if keep in mind that Florida is very flat land and it won’t weaken as quickly as it would over more hilly terrain. Most of the models that bring it back out in the Atlantic still have the pressure between 986-990mb when exits the Peninsula which would most likely still be a weak cat 1. Restrengthening would depend on just how much time it’s over water before coming back into land, but for example Erin in 1995 hit the east coast of central Florida as a category 2, spent nearly 24 on land only weakening to a strong tropical storm and then emerged in the Gulf and quickly intensified into a category 2 before hitting the Florida Panhandle.
 
Code: 
  UW - CIMSS                    
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                    ADT-Version 9.0               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  27 SEP 2022    Time :   155020 UTC
      Lat :   23:08:59 N     Lon :   83:26:59 W

    
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.4 /  935mb / 125kts

    
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.4     6.6     6.6


ouch. this would be like 143mph.. but its satellite so..
 
Concerning thing about the Ukmet is it initializes it at 979mb and never shows it stronger than that, so we know it's off on intensity. Now is it off on track or is it right with track and off on intensity out in Atl.... idk.
 
metwannabe said:
Concerning thing about the Ukmet is it initializes it at 979mb and never shows it stronger than that, so we know it's off on intensity. Now is it off on track or is it right with track and off on intensity out in Atl.... idk.
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A lot of these models are not initializing the storm right.
 
Shawn said:
I think the Icon is probably way overdoing intensification, but it's not impossible if it gets over the ATL for an ample amount of time...
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Agreed… 964MB definitely seems a bit extreme, but even if it would drop back to 975mb, that would be a solid category 2 storm and most likely with a fairly wide wind field. Also with a high pressure moving into the Northeast, there’s gonna be a fairly tight pressure gradient meaning a strong onshore wind far north of the center.
 
The recon is about to do another center pass. The darn transponder for the pressure is still not working.
 
Florida is not that wide and flat. I think the intensity for it when it crosses FL and gets back in the Atlantic all depends on how fast it moves across FL. The longer it takes, the more it will weaken. If it moves fast and gets back out into the Atlantic, it could keep a lot of it's intensity and strengthen again before a second landfall.
 
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