Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I think we see the models continue to trend away from that hard stall and NW turn....

Probably the best model agreement we’ve seen this whole time showing the big bend back NW. If it holds at 0Z I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet. Gonna be some rough mountain flooding and mudslides if it does come to fruition.

 

[southernskimmer]

I live 10 miles south of West Palm beach and this line of storms about to come through sound pretty gnarly outside. A few minutes back a tornado warning interrupted the Yankees game. About to buckle in for an interesting 24 hours.

 

[thunderwolf]

I think we see the models continue to trend away from that hard stall and NW turn....

Climo would tend to make me agree, but the WAR is building and I don't think there is a whole lot of room for the system to move any further up the east coast.

 

[WeatherNC]

Little surprised we didn't get a jog/wobble N or even NNW with that deep convection on the W/S/SW sides possibly tugging it that way. Instead looks like a jog east

Strongly agree, angular momentum argued a N/NNW wobble, guess is we are starting to see trough interaction which was pretty established this afternoon based on radar off east central FL, Volusia county in particular.

 

[Taylor C]

Dry Tortugas, FL got the first landfall.

 

[Henry2326]

View attachment 122343
Sarasota looks to be LF number 1. Model guidance is pretty locked in on a 2nd LF between Savannah and Charleston. I think Hilton Head is likely the spot. Outside of a model run here or there, there hasn’t been much consistent support for a LF north of Charleston at this point. That 2nd is key from how long it takes this sucker to cross Florida and just how strong it is at LF in Florida. Right now I think a 145-150 mph Cat 4 is a strong possibility and just how much can it hold itself together and is there any intensification once back out in the Atlantic

Food for thought.....models are jumping into Atlantic at:
Icon. 985
UK. ??
HMON. 995
HWRF. 987. (Only over water 15 hours)
GFS. 989 (only over water 15 hours)
EURO. 985
NAM. 993
It moves over the gulf stream in pristine bath water for 42 hours.
Gotta have intensification occur.....

 

[Downeastnc]

Climo would tend to make me agree, but the WAR is building and I don't think there is a whole lot of room for the system to move any further up the east coast.

Its more about speed IMO, the models and ens that carry it into SC/GA border and NW from there etc tend to be slower and more NNE across Florida with Ian allowing time for the WAR to close the door, the ens that get it further north are quicker across Florida and further out into the ATL letting Ian get further north....if you go back and look at which ens have done the best so far with Ian it is the ones that are faster and further N with the second LF.....so I give them more weight until there is reason not to.

 

[thunderwolf]

But if you compare the WAR from the 9/26 0Z GFS at 78 hrs to the most recent 18Z run at 36 hours, you will notice the strength of the WAR was over modeled on earlier runs which will allow Ian to make landfall in SW FL instead of the Panhandle. Is the strength of the WAR still over modeled at 72-96 hrs? Time will tell, but if that trend does continue, I think we could see Ian remain over the Atlantic longer and make a 2nd landfall farther north along the east coast.

 

[Avalanche]

Its more about speed IMO, the models and ens that carry it into SC/GA border and NW from there etc tend to be slower and more NNE across Florida with Ian allowing time for the WAR to close the door, the ens that get it further north are quicker across Florida and further out into the ATL letting Ian get further north....if you go back and look at which ens have done the best so far with Ian it is the ones that are faster and further N with the second LF.....so I give them more weight until there is reason not to.

That is fair reasoning. Good writeup.

 

[Metwannabe]

That is fair reasoning. Good writeup.

He has his moments ?

 

[Avalanche]

Wral in Raleigh very bullish on this far western track. Not sure how that impacts rainfall for us though.

 

[WeatherNC]

But if you compare the WAR from the 9/26 0Z GFS at 78 hrs to the most recent 18Z run at 36 hours, you will notice the strength of the WAR was over modeled on earlier runs which will allow Ian to make landfall in SW FL instead of the Panhandle. Is the strength of the WAR still over modeled at 72-96 hrs? Time will tell, but if that trend does continue, I think we could see Ian remain over the Atlantic longer and make a 2nd landfall farther north along the east coast.

WAR retrogrades closer to verification, I'd be interested in your take of the 200mb jet sharpening off the MA.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Going to be quite funny if Atlanta doesn’t get much rain from this after all the local Mets have been hollering about this weekend being a washout

 

[Arcc]

CDO really expanding on IR with ERC just about complete. I’m waiting on a big convective blow up in the north side to get it going.

 

[Chazwin]

I would bet its more Charleston to Wilmington, the storm has consistently been well east of guidance....I foresee a few more east shifts in track for the NHC....

At that point though, the storm isn’t moving north or northeast… it’s turned back NW as steering switches. In fact both the Icon and UK were further north up the coastline earlier between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, but both have now come noticeably further south close to Charleston.

 

[jeremyt]

Going to be quite funny if Atlanta doesn’t get much rain from this after all the local Mets have been hollering about this weekend being a washout

One of those dang if you do, dang if you don’t. Imagine not saying anything and weekend plans getting ruined by rain.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Chazwin]

I think we see the models continue to trend away from that hard stall and NW turn....

What are you looking at?? If anything the models today have trended more towards that NW turn. Believe me, I didn’t buy into at first, but it’s very noticeable that the trough is moving too quickly to just grab the storm and continue pulling it NE. GSP mentioned it in there discussion. Without the trough to pull it away, the steering weakens and what steering is there would pull the storm back NW

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Going to be quite funny if Atlanta doesn’t get much rain from this after all the local Mets have been hollering about this weekend being a washout

There’s a slightly large series this weekend at the corner of I-75 and I-285 that a lot of people in that area are hoping for no washout.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

There’s a slightly large series this weekend at the corner of I-75 and I-285 that a lot of people in that area are hoping for no washout.

I mean they have to make a decision for that series before the series starts, so they could move the games away from Atlanta and Atlanta end up getting no rain.