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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Chazwin said:
What are you looking at?? If anything the models today have trended more towards that NW turn. Believe me, I didn’t buy into at first, but it’s very noticeable that the trough is moving too quickly to just grab the storm and continue pulling it NE. GSP mentioned it in there discussion. Without the trough to pull it away, the steering weakens and what steering is there would pull the storm back NW
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I get it, but so far the models have frankly stunk.....we are talking pretty big errors even in the 12-24 hr range.....hell Ian is currently east of the NHC cone from just 24 hrs ago....my point is when you compare what the storm is doing to the ensembles, the clusters that take the storm further east and ultimately north are doing better than the others, thats all. It in no way guarantees they will do better with Ian in 48 hrs but it does tell me that those ensembles had the best grasp on the trough and high placement and strengths so far, if that holds then I expect Ian will be further up the coast with the second LF....
 
Downeastnc said:
I get it, but so far the models have frankly stunk.....we are talking pretty big errors even in the 12-24 hr range.....hell Ian is currently east of the NHC cone from just 24 hrs ago....my point is when you compare what the storm is doing to the ensembles, the clusters that take the storm further east and ultimately north are doing better than the others, thats all. It in no way guarantees they will do better with Ian in 48 hrs but it does tell me that those ensembles had the best grasp on the trough and high placement and strengths so far, if that holds then I expect Ian will be further up the coast with the second LF....
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That’s fair. I think the biggest thing I’m looking at is the steering that is there when the storm exits Florida. Like I was saying with the trough moving too quickly grab the storm and with a weaker storm at that time, the little steering there is should pull the storm back NW. It’s important to note that a couple days ago, pretty much all the models, the ones going north into the panhandle to the ones crossing Florida, all had that bend back to the NNW to NW at some point, and all have kept it, even with the storm being more east.
 
Looks like Ian may have weakened a little but it will start strengthening likely until landfall as the ERC does appear to be complete. 020530 2439N 08301W 6970 02740 9520 +171 +027 302012 014 012 000 01
 
Chazwin said:
That’s fair. I think the biggest thing I’m looking at is the steering that is there when the storm exits Florida. Like I was saying with the trough moving too quickly grab the storm and with a weaker storm at that time, the little steering there is should pull the storm back NW. It’s important to note that a couple days ago, pretty much all the models, the ones going north into the panhandle to the ones crossing Florida, all had that bend back to the NNW to NW at some point, and all have kept it, even with the storm being more east.
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Is the forward speed expected to be much faster on a further eastern/southern track? Where is the storm currently located to what was expected in modeling? Not an argument but honest questions. I agree that the NW turn will occur but when and how far north?
 
A buddy of mine in Fort Myers already has ankle deep water in his street & he's miles from the coast. He's about to leave town now. I told him yesterday he needed to leave., but he was being extremely cavalier. A lot of people in his neighborhood have also not left. If this type of mentality is congruent throught SWFL it could be extremely devastating.
 
southernskimmer said:
A buddy of mine in Fort Myers already has ankle deep water in his street & he's miles from the coast. He's about to leave town now. I told him yesterday he needed to leave., but he was being extremely cavalier. A lot of people in his neighborhood have also not left. If this type of mentality is congruent throught SWFL it could be extremely devastating.
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Ft myers, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte area appear to be the areas that are going to get it the worst assuming Venice/Englewood stay in the cross hairs. A lot of comments I'm seeing on-line from people down to Naples weren't planning on leaving.
 
jeremyt said:
Is the forward speed expected to be much faster on a further eastern/southern track? Where is the storm currently located to what was expected in modeling? Not an argument but honest questions. I agree that the NW turn will occur but when and how far north?
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As the trough pulls away and has less effects on the steering, the forward speed would slow, and yes where that NW turn occurs is very important to where that east coast landfall would take place. Earlier models that had the storm out in the Atlantic were turning it later and bringing in a landfall between Myrtle Beach and Cape Fear. Now those have trended to an earlier turn and bringing it in between Savannah and Georgetown.
 
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