Thor
Member
Euro from last friday
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
That's amazing
Not far off from what the Icon and UK are showing, they have come a little further down the coast. Actually a fairly good consensus for a landfall between Savannah and Georgetown
Actually strengthening it appears...
iGRXY
Member
Radar actually looks healthier on the south side. Looks like the eyewall is really consolidating and appears to be a double eyewall with the original still looking nasty on the north side
mydoortotheworld
Member
Whatever Ian is doing, either be it EWRC or burping out dry air, recon found 949 w/ some wind, so intensification may not have halted…
FWIW it appears that the local Futurecast models here in the CLT all are in line with the Euro/GFS/ICON/UK idea of a landfall off the Atlantic between Savannah and Georgetown. Then it brings up to stall out NW of Columbia.
Eyewall replacement cycle has been going on.
947 mb.
I mean good god! Latest HWRF now has strengthening IAN into the 920s… these models do the best the closer we get to a land falling event .. this is concerning 
Brick Tamland
Member
Not surprised. This is what I was saying a few days ago. These things have blown up like crazy in the Gulf the past few years.
good grief the mountains of cuba knocked off a total of like 8 mb off this thing then it continued to strengthen even through an ewrc hurricane game derrick henry
One has to go back to Hurricane Charley (2004), wow, it's been that long, for a storm of similar significance impacting SW FL. Charley was ~941 at landfall, very tight circulation, for those who remember Port Charlotte got rocked. Ian will likely come in just north of where Charley did but not by much, and a much larger system.
Refresher on central FL, best case scenario once he clears the coast if the track holds. St. Pete will see bay side surge, as opposed to 10-15' up Tampa Bay, big difference. Fort Myers on the other hand will likely eclipse Charley's surge and one for the books.
On the east coast of FL one wants to be in the left front for a smoke show, on the west coast its kinda the opposite, right rear.
Refresher on central FL, best case scenario once he clears the coast if the track holds. St. Pete will see bay side surge, as opposed to 10-15' up Tampa Bay, big difference. Fort Myers on the other hand will likely eclipse Charley's surge and one for the books.
On the east coast of FL one wants to be in the left front for a smoke show, on the west coast its kinda the opposite, right rear.
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Let’s remember though, this would not have happened this close to landfall had the storm stayed a little west and gone in at the Big Bend or Panhandle like things looked a couple days ago. The conditions at this latitude were always going to be conducive for major strengthening. With it taking the path it’s taking, the area of strong shear might actually being aiding it allowing the storm to vent and have a strong outflow
Yep. Last run of the Euro has the anticyclone on top of the system until landfall at this track.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Sheesh. PDS tornado warning for Broward Co.
Cary_Snow95
Member
This eye is about to be absolutely massive