I would expect with the jet dynamics coming in from the west that that rain shield will expand further west as the NAM gets closer.
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Tropical Hurricane Ian
- Thread starter severestorm
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
Taylor C
Member
You can see the secondary eyewall taking shape here
New come at 5pm update, considerable NW lean to the come from NHC
severestorm
Member
New eyewall?
Dry air?
Heelyes
Member
Henry2326
Member
5 pm discussion
This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida.
In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida.
In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 24.0N 83.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 25.3N 82.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 26.6N 82.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 82.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0600Z 29.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.0N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/1800Z 34.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
iGRXY
Member
New eyewall. It’s going through a replacement cycle
Henry2326
Member
Sometimes they never recover and the eye stays big, I wouldn’t be suprised if it peaks at 130 mph
Lots of shear to the NW of the storm
Henry2326
Member
Looks like Charleston
Wow.
Nerman
Member
NHC calling for strengthening Cat 4 into landfall now
Yep, remnants of the original SW portion are pretty much done, a little bit of a moot to clear out but new maxima about 35 miles SW of the center is taking over. Certainly appears to be one the cleaner ERCs we have seen on radar, often times the remnants bounce around and disrupt the core significantly for a period, the NW side being firmly rooted in the heavier convection helped here.
Actually where the shear is located in relation to the storm, it could actually help to vent the outflow and aide in strengthening
Cary_Snow95
Member
Gfs with a jump east
Nerman
Member
Port Charlotte, Cape Coral, Fort Myers could all be getting the biggest storm surge they've had since 1960
Cary_Snow95
Member
