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Tropical Hurricane Ian

Rain Cold said:
There will absolutely a dry punch that shuts off precip for a large area, depending on the track. Right now, that looks to be central NC. But nothing is set in stone yet.
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Yeah someone is going to get a big dry slot. Sucks from a total qpf perspective but really increases severe potential
 
LOCATION...23.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
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NHC has the pressure down to 952 mb.
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeap plenty of anomalies. What do you expect?

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Low tropical activity so far. You can't exhaust this heat until you get some storms going! A lot of those temps are just barely above baseline, too. The Gulf hasn't been touched so far this year, so it's ripe. Ian will help churn the waters and cool it down some.
 
KyloG said:
You still think this is headed for Talahassee? Clearly, the more eastern UK/ICON models are going to verify better than what Euro/GFS had been showing.
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I agree. The hurricane models are also showing it emerging over the Atlantic. I discount the solutions showing a left turn in Florida and heading into Georgia. This is a FL/SC/NC storm to me.
 
smast16 said:
Of course, i'll take the 1.6 and be happy.

View attachment 122302
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If this thing keeps going east and stays to my east of clt, which I bet it does, im not expecting much rain. Usually a sharp cut off to the west.

I'm losing confidence this will keep west of mby and giving me a copious rain event.

Having a storm just come from Cuba heading generally north through the SE was always suspicious imo.
 
Still looks pretty decent east component to movement. Should reach 83W in a couple hours when it wasn't suppose to be back to 83W until up by Tampa on yesterday's track forecast.
 
SnowNiner said:
If this thing keeps going east and stays to my east of clt, which I bet it does, im not expecting much rain. Usually a sharp cut off to the west.

I'm losing confidence this will keep west of mby and giving me a copious rain event.

Having a storm just come from Cuba heading generally north through the SE was always suspicious imo.
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Normally I would agree with this, however this is a different type of set up as you have the trough forcing it to hook back to the NNW and NW and coming inland. The storm hooking back west to an extent is actually something that the models have been in fairly good agreement on… there’s just differences in when that occurs and how far back to the west it goes. Also the location of Ian and the high moving into the Northeast provides a very moist flow that pretty much all modeling is picking up on and brings a widespread significant rainfall to the all of the Carolinas back into GA and eastern Tennessee
 
Shaggy said:
Still looks pretty decent east component to movement. Should reach 83W in a couple hours when it wasn't suppose to be back to 83W until up by Tampa on yesterday's track forecast.
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It's an east of due north or 010 degrees heading. Wobbled north but smoothed 010 degrees on the last several hours. Definitely on the eastern scope of the blend of models.
 
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