• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Ian

Rain Cold said:
There will absolutely a dry punch that shuts off precip for a large area, depending on the track. Right now, that looks to be central NC. But nothing is set in stone yet.
Click to expand...
Yeah someone is going to get a big dry slot. Sucks from a total qpf perspective but really increases severe potential
 
LOCATION...23.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
Click to expand...
NHC has the pressure down to 952 mb.
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeap plenty of anomalies. What do you expect?

2954077eeba732db88e308a09442dfd9.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Low tropical activity so far. You can't exhaust this heat until you get some storms going! A lot of those temps are just barely above baseline, too. The Gulf hasn't been touched so far this year, so it's ripe. Ian will help churn the waters and cool it down some.
 
KyloG said:
You still think this is headed for Talahassee? Clearly, the more eastern UK/ICON models are going to verify better than what Euro/GFS had been showing.
Click to expand...
I agree. The hurricane models are also showing it emerging over the Atlantic. I discount the solutions showing a left turn in Florida and heading into Georgia. This is a FL/SC/NC storm to me.
 
smast16 said:
Of course, i'll take the 1.6 and be happy.

View attachment 122302
Click to expand...

If this thing keeps going east and stays to my east of clt, which I bet it does, im not expecting much rain. Usually a sharp cut off to the west.

I'm losing confidence this will keep west of mby and giving me a copious rain event.

Having a storm just come from Cuba heading generally north through the SE was always suspicious imo.
 
Still looks pretty decent east component to movement. Should reach 83W in a couple hours when it wasn't suppose to be back to 83W until up by Tampa on yesterday's track forecast.
 
SnowNiner said:
If this thing keeps going east and stays to my east of clt, which I bet it does, im not expecting much rain. Usually a sharp cut off to the west.

I'm losing confidence this will keep west of mby and giving me a copious rain event.

Having a storm just come from Cuba heading generally north through the SE was always suspicious imo.
Click to expand...
Normally I would agree with this, however this is a different type of set up as you have the trough forcing it to hook back to the NNW and NW and coming inland. The storm hooking back west to an extent is actually something that the models have been in fairly good agreement on… there’s just differences in when that occurs and how far back to the west it goes. Also the location of Ian and the high moving into the Northeast provides a very moist flow that pretty much all modeling is picking up on and brings a widespread significant rainfall to the all of the Carolinas back into GA and eastern Tennessee
 
Shaggy said:
Still looks pretty decent east component to movement. Should reach 83W in a couple hours when it wasn't suppose to be back to 83W until up by Tampa on yesterday's track forecast.
Click to expand...
It's an east of due north or 010 degrees heading. Wobbled north but smoothed 010 degrees on the last several hours. Definitely on the eastern scope of the blend of models.
 
Stormsfury said:
It's an east of due north or 010 degrees heading. Wobbled north but smoothed 010 degrees on the last several hours. Definitely on the eastern scope of the blend of models.
Click to expand...
If this exit off the east coast happens you are in a good spot to get whatever he has left to give.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top