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Tropical Hurricane Ian

KyloG said:
Euro track, south of previous runs really backs off rain amt up in NC area but lower SE gets big amounts.

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Euro and other globals will struggle with QPF as we are starting to get out of their wheel house. There's a reason the WPC is going for widespread 5-7" across NC/SC/and Ga.
 
iGRXY said:
Euro and other globals will struggle with QPF as we are starting to get out of their wheel house. There's a reason the WPC is going for widespread 5-7" across NC/SC/and Ga.
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There will absolutely a dry punch that shuts off precip for a large area, depending on the track. Right now, that looks to be central NC. But nothing is set in stone yet.
 
iGRXY said:
I said before that Hurricanes are no longer behave as they have in the past with weakening on approach to land. These extremely warm waters that we have now compared to the past is just like jet fuel for these storms. Even where you get dry air and shear, storms either aren't weakening considerably or actually gain some strength if it's over very warm waters. Right now there's shear but its coming across the NE and with this thing moving NE it's really not having any affect and is venting the storm. At the end of the day you can have all these obstacles in the path of these storms, but if it's over 85 degree + water, it's almost obsolete at this point. It's almost like God dropped steroids in the ocean waters of the Gulf and Caribbean.
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That's what I said a few days ago. We have seen these hurricanes blow up very quickly the last few years, especially ones in the Gulf.
 
Rain Cold said:
There will absolutely a dry punch that shuts off precip for a large area, depending on the track. Right now, that looks to be central NC. But nothing is set in stone yet.
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Definitely...I don't really care how much rain we get but with a further s/e track that will limit our high end.
 
iGRXY said:
See I disagree and chop it up to clear climate change making fueling these storms more and more obvious.
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Yeap plenty of anomalies. What do you expect?

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SW eyewall pretty close to being open, going to be interesting over the next 6-12 hours in whether it continues to intensify or we see a leveling off and ERC.


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