Tropical Hurricane Ian

[Bama Ravens]

The eye has cleared out well over the last few hours.

 

[Shawn]

New satellite still shows ridiculous strengthening. from 935 to 933mb and 125kt to 127 within 30 min. again its satellite but ruh roh. Eye temp up to 18.1c

 

[Rain Cold]

New satellite still shows ridiculous strengthening. from 935 to 933mb and 125kt to 127 within 30 min. again its satellite but ruh roh

Cat 4 sat presentation. It will be upgraded soon.

 

[Taylor C]

They just did a pass and no Cat 4 winds has been found.

Thank you.

Looks on its way though.

 

[Shawn]

Cat 4 sat presentation. It will be upgraded soon.

Plane 2 is about to be in the storm. Hopefully we have working instruments lolz

 

[Chazwin]

Plane 2 is about to be in the storm. Hopefully we have working instruments lolz

I know it’s off topic, but seriously those planes need a major upgrade.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Sonde finds 955

 

[severestorm]

Key West getting some effects

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Arcc]

I said before that Hurricanes are no longer behave as they have in the past with weakening on approach to land. These extremely warm waters that we have now compared to the past is just like jet fuel for these storms. Even where you get dry air and shear, storms either aren't weakening considerably or actually gain some strength if it's over very warm waters. Right now there's shear but its coming across the NE and with this thing moving NE it's really not having any affect and is venting the storm. At the end of the day you can have all these obstacles in the path of these storms, but if it's over 85 degree + water, it's almost obsolete at this point. It's almost like God dropped steroids in the ocean waters of the Gulf and Caribbean.

I disagree to an extent. The big hits over the past few years have much more to do with timing. For instance in 04-05 the big storms reached their peaks early as opposed to the past few years where they tend to bumble around until right before landfall to finally put it together and go haywire. Now what has caused that can be debated.

 

[iGRXY]

I disagree to an extent. The big hits over the past few years have much more to do with timing. For instance in 04-05 the big storms reached their peaks early as opposed to the past few years where they tend to bumble around until right before landfall to finally put it together and go haywire. Now what has caused that can be debated.

See I disagree and chop it up to clear climate change making fueling these storms more and more obvious.

 

[rambleon]

What types of impacts might be expected on east coast of Florida (Daytona or north) if Ian decides to pop over to the Atlantic if it comes in near tampa?

 

[Arcc]

This loop of the GFS shows just what may happen if it continues to sag south. You can watch the anticyclone over the storm get pushed to the south as the shear increases. Every trend south lessens the shear.

 

[Henry2326]

12z HMON.....

Continues its trend with 2nd LF in SC.

 

[Stevo24]

See I disagree and chop it up to clear climate change making fueling these storms more and more obvious.

If this makes a 2nd landfall (IF) what affects will this have on us in the upstate? Less rain?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

12z HMON.....

Continues its trend with 2nd LF in SC.


View attachment 122288

What is UKMET showing for rain accumulations?

 

[Arcc]

I highly doubt any strengthening occurs if it makes it to the Atlantic. That shear and dry air is strong.

 

[Arcc]

12z HMON.....brutal


View attachment 122285

Absolutely brutal. Pretty much a 125knt hit! HWRF is about the same should it hit the same area and not move farther north.

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[jackendrickwx]

Latest update: 120mph 955mb moving N @ 10mph