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Tropical Hurricane Ian

smast16 said:
Of course, i'll take the 1.6 and be happy.

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Pretty classic along and LOT heavy rain setup. You probably do better than the Euro has, we probably all do. Dry slot looks like it kicks in for much of NC and Central/eastern SC but that's likely to be accompanied by low topped bands of convection in the afternoon leading to localized high 4-6 inch amounts. The real key for us will be how quickly we can overcome the residual wedge and go to town with rain and any mesoscale enhancements and banding from the retreating mid level trough/fgen and any sfc convergence along the retreating coastal front. 1-2 from the euro is probably too low I'd guess a widespread 2-4 is more reasonable for much of NC
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think we have seen shifts with the track like this more and more often the past few years.
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We really haven’t…this is one of the few impactful storms that the NHC has been significantly off on the track inside 5 days in the last few years. For they most part, there tracks five days out have ended up being within 50 miles of the landfall point
 
With regards to the track and the difficulty with prediction....when is the last time we had a true air mass changing trough envelop the Eastern half of the continent this time of year while a significant TC was approaching from it's "normal" shoot the gap spot? Just a thought, who knows?
 
SASQUATCH said:
With regards to the track and the difficulty with prediction....when is the last time we had a true air mass changing trough envelop the Eastern half of the continent this time of year while a significant TC was approaching from it's "normal" shoot the gap spot? Just a thought, who knows?
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This is actually a great point…as has been pointed out, there are a lot of things about this storm that just seem to be out of the ordinary which I’m sure makes forecasting it, that much more difficult. This may actually be the set up that puts a landfall of a hurricane on the GA coast… some models are very close to doing just that.
 
Chazwin said:
This is actually a great point…as has been pointed out, there are a lot of things about this storm that just seem to be out of the ordinary which I’m sure makes forecasting it, that much more difficult. This may actually be the set up that puts a landfall of a hurricane on the GA coast… some models are very close to doing just that.
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I don't remember a lot that were chasing the tail of the trough then getting steer back west by the rebuilding WAR. Systems like Matthew, Wilma, sandy, hazel, Charley were all typically on the front end of troughs or between.
 
SASQUATCH said:
With regards to the track and the difficulty with prediction....when is the last time we had a true air mass changing trough envelop the Eastern half of the continent this time of year while a significant TC was approaching from it's "normal" shoot the gap spot? Just a thought, who knows?
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This is very true. Early season hurricane set up timing a late season like front. People speed reading through the record books as we post.


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