Tropical Hurricane Ian

[iGRXY]

No rain on the radar but it’s pouring here

 

[LickWx]

 

[thunderwolf]

SPC keeps us in a slight risk today. It will be interesting to see how much of the warmer unstable air can be pushed inland. I kind of have my doubts that we will see anything but a brief waterspout or two, but we will see if anything can get spun up along the boundary.

Hurricane Ian is currently off the SC coast, tracking northward.
Surface winds remain northeasterly over land areas, with dewpoints
generally in the 50s and low/mid 60s. Offshore, buoy data suggests
a more moist/unstable air mass is present with dewpoints in the mid
70s. Scattered semi-discrete convection has been occurring in this
offshore regime, along with a few transient supercell structures.
Present indications are that the more moist/favorable air will be
transported inland by early afternoon, with sufficient CAPE to pose
a risk of surface-based storms across much of eastern NC. Satellite
imagery suggests dry air has been entrained into the circulation,
which might lead to pockets of stronger heating/destabilization.
However, the tornado threat should be restricted to areas where the
richest low-level moisture is present (at least low 70s dewpoints).
The area of concern for a few tornadoes will spread northward into
southeast VA tonight as Ian moves inland.

 

[WES1023]

Lighting in the eyewall. Awendaw SC.

 

[jaw719]

Just now getting some thunder

 

[Stormsfury]

Checking in. Sustained 30 mph just had a couple gusts approaching 50mph. In the moat region after the first band of steady heavy rain... Approx. 2" so far estimated

 

[KyloG]

NAM's still ticking east

 

[Metwannabe]

NAM's still ticking east

View attachment 122643

And stronger

 

[Downeastnc]

NAM's still ticking east

View attachment 122643

No one should be surprised by now that Ian is east of guidance lol...

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

NAM anyone? ?

 

[SD]

It's going to be impressive around here this afternoon and evening. I'm not sure people are prepared for what we get

 

[Stevo24]

So what exactly were most of the models missing that was making Ian go east of the track majority of the time? I’m curious and don’t know much about this stuff.

 

[WeatherNC]

Assume that’s a typo with Beaufort ND, but still crazy it’s the only site with a 70F DP. It was 61 at the house when I left around 8, it’s 57 here at RDU proper per the Outback.

 

[SnowNiner]

No one should be surprised by now that Ian is east of guidance lol...

I'm surprised that nhc continually hasn't read the writing on the wall and continued to forecast west and correct east. Seems like the entire life of the cyclone.

 

[Stormsfury]

I'm surprised that nhc continually hasn't read the writing on the wall and continued to forecast west and correct east.

They actually did on the last advisory.
Recon appears to have a center at 79.4W...

 

[SD]

So what exactly were most of the models missing that was making Ian go east of the track majority of the time? I’m curious and don’t know much about this stuff.

JHSs house

 

[Downeastnc]

That NE quad fairly stout legit cane at the surface

 

[Metwannabe]

Overdone right?

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Thor]

Overdone right?

Sure it's overdone a bit but even 75% of that I probably lose power. The trends got us here, and you have certainly been on them the whole time and I commend you for that.

I mean either way I have everything charging and ready to go. I've had some flickers this morning. 1.22" on the tempest. Going to throw a steak on the griddle and enjoy whatever blows through.