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Tropical Hurricane Francine

Arcc said:
Definitely a very interesting look for tomorrow on the WRFs. Both get sbcape 1500-2000 across a thin region in central AL ahead of the tropical rain band.
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WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS. NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING MAJOR BUT A FEW SPINUPS DEF. POSS
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
LOOKS TO ME AS IF THIS WILL HIT ON THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONE..
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It does look like it.

There is a fairly large area of near-hurricane-strength winds on the east side of the storm but nothing too crazy. Given the satellite presentation, I suspect the storm is near peak intensity. This storm reminds me a lot of Hurricane Edith in track and intensity from back in the 70s. Pretty much a garden variety storm for SE Louisiana.
 
06Z HWRF brings the eye directly over New Orleans with little weakening at 'landfall'=marshland. In any case, the N.O. area seems destined to catch the worst that Francine offers in the NE quadrant.
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NoSnowATL said:
She isn't special by any means but she's the 2024 type storm. Weak and eastside loaded and will end up being a nuisance more than anything.
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Especially a nuisance there if she drops a ton of water. They've closed the barriers on the canals if that gives you any indication. Where's the water gonna go but just pile up. I still remember those folks siting on their roofs.
 
Henry2326 said:
Especially a nuisance there if she drops a ton of water. They've closed the barriers on the canals if that gives you any indication. Where's the water gonna go but just pile up. I still remember those folks siting on their roofs.
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The flooding from Katrina wasn't from rain. The 17th Street and Industrial Canal floodwalls failed.

Francine is moving forward at a steady clip so any localized street flooding will be no worse than what happens frequently in summer downpours. Only areas outside of the flood control system need to be concerned about storm surge and that will be muted given the track from the SW.
 
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Wild Weather Monger said:
The flooding from Katrina wasn't from rain. The 17th Street and Industrial Canal floodwalls failed.

Francine is moving forward at a steady clip so any localized street flooding will be no worse than what happens frequently in summer downpours. Only areas outside of the flood control system need to be concerned about storm surge and that will be muted given the track from the SW.
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So they have mandatory evacuations for rainstorms? I don't think so. Mandatory evacuations started yesterday morning.
 
Henry2326 said:
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So they have mandatory evacuations for rainstorms? I don't think so. Mandatory evacuations started yesterday morning.
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Those are all for low-lying areas outside of the flood control structures. All the usual places that happen whenever a storm approaches.
 
Henry2326 said:
Especially a nuisance there if she drops a ton of water. They've closed the barriers on the canals if that gives you any indication. Where's the water gonna go but just pile up. I still remember those folks siting on their roofs.
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Living in a fish bowl below sea level isn't a smart investment.
 
Henry2326 said:
So they evacuate those places everytime a storm goes through??
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Pretty much. It's just part of living on the water and marsh. Little towns such as Grand Isle have had seasons where multiple evacuation orders have been ordered.

Another thing that will be helpful to minimize surge east of the Mississippi River is with no strong HP NE of the system, there hasn't been a long period of 20+ mph easterly winds ahead of the storm to pile water into the sound and Lake Ponchartrain. On the other hand, the large eye will mean more areas than usual will get TS winds with gusts to near hurricane strength than one would expect with a cat 1/2 hurricane.
 
Looking at IR, outflow has definitely improved on the west side. The eastern movement will help with the westerly shear as well. I don’t necessarily think it will get there, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a run at Cat 3.
 
The storm is putting up a strong fight against the westerly shear. Strong convection in the western eyewall and deep convection to the southwest out of radar range per satellite that we'll see if it can feed in and close off the eastern eyewall.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Those are all for low-lying areas outside of the flood control structures. All the usual places that happen whenever a storm approaches.
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Those places weren't the "usual" places until New Orleans got a beefed up levee system. The water has to go somewhere when it's not going where nature intended it to go, thus it's now wrecking the communities just outside of the levee's protection. Go ask the folks in Jean Lafitte how they feel about the levees after Hurricane Ida. I always thought the levee's were universally good. Those folks don't believe so!
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
Those places weren't the "usual" places until New Orleans got a beefed up levee system. The water has to go somewhere when it's not going where nature intended it to go, thus it's now wrecking the communities just outside of the levee's protection. Go ask the folks in Jean Lafitte how they feel about the levees after Hurricane Ida. I always thought the levee's were universally good. Those folks don't believe so!
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Ida was a high-end cane. Apples and Oranges.

Jean Lafitte got wrecked in Hurricane Betsy in 65 long before flood protection systems of any substance were in place.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Ida was a high-end cane. Apples and Oranges.

Jean Lafitte got wrecked in Hurricane Betsy in 65 long before flood protection systems of any substance were in place.
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So then compare Jean Laftitte post-Ida and post-Katrina to NOLA post-Ida and post-Katrina. There is merit to their claims. As for Hurricane Betsy, she wrecked all of Southern Louisiana, NOLA included.

I am not going to clog up this thread with a levee debate but I would recommend anyone to go to Southern Louisiana and have discussions with those folks on the matter. It's quite eye-opening really!
 
Six-hour radar plot shows Francine still on a path directly to N.O. I'm surprised the NHC didn't move the cone a tic east at 11 AM. Time is running out for the Greater New Orleans area to escape the eastern eyewall.

edit: The good news is atm, dry air has eroded the eastern eyewall. If this holds, N.O. metro will escape with minimal damage without heavy convection to transport strong gusts down to the surface.
 
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BlueRidgeFolklore said:
So then compare Jean Laftitte post-Ida and post-Katrina to NOLA post-Ida and post-Katrina. There is merit to their claims. As for Hurricane Betsy, she wrecked all of Southern Louisiana, NOLA included.
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I'm well aware. I was in Betsy.

Katrina, tracked to the NNE putting Jean Laffite on the north and then the northwest side of the storm unlike Ida which drove SE and S winds into lower Jefferson as it passed over and to the west.
 
I'd say presentation on radar looks poor. Open eye wall to the south and southeast. Big rain maker for many, some gusty winds for sure but as far as damage goes, I think it will be relatively minor for a hurricane. I bet New Orleans is very prepared, now, after the lessons learned from Katrina.
 
12z Euro is a soaker Georgia and most of SE

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