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Tropical Hurricane Francine

Francine?

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern
Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The wave is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche later today,
and an area of low pressure is forecast to develop while interacting
with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
60%

. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is forecast to
develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves
slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

two_atl_7d0 (11).png
 
ICON would bring the heaviest precip just south and east of Memphis compared to the 0Z.
IMG_9711.png
IMG_9712.png
 
The Euro is onboard.
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png
 
Code Red

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure has formed over the Bay of Campeche and is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to drift slowly northward for a couple of days while it
interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and
Texas Gulf coastline. Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
Looks like this thing may be tilted to the west a little with the MLC vorticity blowing deep convection west of the better low level swirl. There's also a bit of elongation in the slp field as this interacts with the leftovers of 90L. Once this thing eats whatever is left of 90L and stacks itself it shouldn't take long to go to TD/TS status. Have to question if it gets too close to the Mx coast around D3 and that potentially throws off the eventual track which has reasonably good agreement on the models at the moment.
 
Meant to add once this gets inland it may get stuck under the big ridge that's going to form over the lakes and NE if it does we will still likely be dealing with the remnants 10-12 days from now until it completely dissolves. Alternatively it may ride north on the western side of the ridge and quickly exit
 
HWRF moves this onto land just south of the TX/MX border at hour 102 then back out into the Gulf at hour 114 then back onto land at hour 123.
IMG_9718.png
 
80%

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
0Z UKMET: landfall as a TS Wed (9/11) evening C LA; moves NE to far E TN, where it dissipates Fri night (9/13-4)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 20.5N 94.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2024 36 20.5N 94.4W 1005 40
0000UTC 10.09.2024 48 21.8N 93.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 10.09.2024 60 23.1N 95.0W 1005 31
0000UTC 11.09.2024 72 24.7N 94.0W 1001 30
1200UTC 11.09.2024 84 26.9N 93.3W 998 38
0000UTC 12.09.2024 96 29.2N 91.6W 996 36
1200UTC 12.09.2024 108 31.8N 89.6W 999 32
0000UTC 13.09.2024 120 32.9N 88.8W 1002 20
1200UTC 13.09.2024 132 34.4N 87.9W 1006 16
0000UTC 14.09.2024 144 36.6N 84.0W 1008 14
1200UTC 14.09.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING
 
Last edited:
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