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Looks like this thing may be tilted to the west a little with the MLC vorticity blowing deep convection west of the better low level swirl. There's also a bit of elongation in the slp field as this interacts with the leftovers of 90L. Once this thing eats whatever is left of 90L and stacks itself it shouldn't take long to go to TD/TS status. Have to question if it gets too close to the Mx coast around D3 and that potentially throws off the eventual track which has reasonably good agreement on the models at the moment.
Meant to add once this gets inland it may get stuck under the big ridge that's going to form over the lakes and NE if it does we will still likely be dealing with the remnants 10-12 days from now until it completely dissolves. Alternatively it may ride north on the western side of the ridge and quickly exit
1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance
is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days
while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves
generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas
through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
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