Tropical Hurricane Francine

[NWMSGuy]

Latest 06z runs bring this further south and east of Memphis. Let’s see what she does!

 

[Brent]

Watches could be
required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or
tonight.

 

[NWMSGuy]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

12Z GFS is quite aggressive. Heads up La. peeps.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Any of yall believe I may be looking at Tornado Watches close by with this track?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Any of yall believe I may be looking at Tornado Watches close by with this track?
View attachment 150838

No doubt and heavy rain, but not too prolonged so flooding should be isolated.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like Recon missions have started for Invest 91L.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: similar C LA landfall location/timing (PM of 9/11) to 0Z run but stronger at 990 mb vs 996 mb. (Winds at landfall of 40 knots too light imo due to model bias this far out.) Also, this run then goes NNE up Miss River to Memphis instead of NE to far E TN:

TROPICAL STORM 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 93.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2024 0 20.2N 93.8W 1004 37
0000UTC 09.09.2024 12 20.4N 93.9W 1003 36
1200UTC 09.09.2024 24 21.8N 94.2W 1003 40
0000UTC 10.09.2024 36 23.1N 94.9W 1002 39
1200UTC 10.09.2024 48 24.7N 95.8W 999 40
0000UTC 11.09.2024 60 25.6N 95.3W 995 35
1200UTC 11.09.2024 72 27.7N 93.6W 990 49
0000UTC 12.09.2024 84 29.8N 91.2W 990 40
1200UTC 12.09.2024 96 32.7N 90.8W 992 27
0000UTC 13.09.2024 108 35.0N 90.2W 995 22
1200UTC 13.09.2024 120 36.3N 89.5W 1002 16
0000UTC 14.09.2024 132 37.4N 88.8W 1007 19
1200UTC 14.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

 

[Arcc]

Any of yall believe I may be looking at Tornado Watches close by with this track?
View attachment 150838

I’ll say one thing, all of Alabama has to watch for tornadoes on the GFS. Very impressive wind shear.

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: much stronger, quicker, and further E at landfall than prior runs with 978 mb H at late Wed evening C LA landfall, similar location/timing to 12Z UKMET. It then like the UK turns NNE up/near the Miss River.

 

[Philstorm91]

I'm keeping a close eye on this invest from southern LA, believe me! We've had a relatively quiet season thus far, but as history has shown, it only takes one nasty storm to make the season an infamous one.

 

[BHS1975]

12Z GFS is quite aggressive. Heads up La. peeps.
View attachment 150837

That's a very low populated area.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GaWx]

I'm keeping a close eye on this invest from southern LA, believe me! We've had a relatively quiet season thus far, but as history has shown, it only takes one nasty storm to make the season an infamous one.

Ironically, if this were to hit the US as a H and based on the model consensus timing, it would be the earliest 3rd H hit on the CONUS since way back in 2005! Only 10 of 173 years since 1851 (6%) would have had an earlier 3rd H hit with only 2 of those during the internet era. They are 2005, 2004, 1985, 1934, 1933, 1916, 1893, 1886, 1879, and 1871. So, in this way at least, not at all a quiet season so far.

Edit: Oops, I somehow left off 2020, which had its 3rd H landfall on LA on 8/27 (Ida). So, it hasn’t been since 2005. Revises it from 10 to 11 of the 173 years (still 6%) with #3 before the expected upcoming LA landfall.

 

[Brent]

This is getting very interesting

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Arcc]

Euro will also be a big problem for tornadoes across AL/MS.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Euro will also be a big problem for tornadoes across AL/MS.

Haven’t checked out the latest EURO. You believe we should be looking at any tornado watches around Memphis?

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Arcc]

Haven’t checked out the latest EURO. You believe we should be looking at any tornado watches around Memphis?

Probably not gonna be a big deal if the Euro is right tornado wise for Memphis.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Probably not gonna be a big deal if the Euro is right tornado wise for Memphis.

Thanks dude! Bet anything the SPC will go precautionary if anything with that track.

 

[Brent]

Thanks dude! Bet anything the SPC will go precautionary if anything with that track. View attachment 150846

Yeah tornadoes will be east of the track

 

[Arcc]

Yeah tornadoes will be east of the track

Insane look for a ex-tropical system.

 

[TileDude]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Brent]

Recon finding 50 kt winds but it's definitely exaggerated by the front

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Brent]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six	​
...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY... ...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK... 4:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 Location: 21.6°N 94.6°W Moving: NW at 5 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

 

[Brent]