Tropical Hurricane Francine

[Belle Lechat]

 

[weatherboyy]

National hurricane center as a cone too far West it's going to be more East they do that all the time I'm ready I'll stay in Louisiana I'm ready to batten down the hatches I'm calling for a category 2 at landfall.

 

[Brent]

That is a very bullish first forecast from the NHC

 

[TileDude]

From Ryan Maue:

Model guidance is more confident in southern Gulf of Mexico disturbance rapidly intensifying into a hurricane prior to landfall in TX/LA Wed/Thurs

970s mb central pressure is quite significant, up to Category 2. Please keep an eye on (soon-to-be) Francine

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[accu35]

Globals are still showing a central Louisiana landfall vrs the spaghetti models. Gonna be interesting to see who wins this one. I’m pulling towards the globals just because they been consistent with a strengthening storm up until landfall

 

[Henry2326]

18z GFS says 964 on approach and 967 at landfall.
Aligns with NHC placement also....

 

[accu35]

18z GFS says 964 on approach and 967 at landfall.

View attachment 150860

That’s still a powerful hurricane at 967mb. If this strengthens any faster than forecast then this could very well trend little more east as it feels the front l.

 

[Henry2326]

Icon and Euro AI in the same location but weaker than GFS.

 

[Henry2326]

That’s still a powerful hurricane at 967mb. If this strengthens any faster than forecast then this could very well trend little more east as it feels the front l.

Euro coming along with GFS at 974. You're "if" statement may come into play.....

 

[Philstorm91]

The global models today have been concerning for me. GFS particularly shows the center of PTC 6 making landfall as a Cat 2/3 and then going inland just west of my location. A couple things to keep in mind that help me feel better is 1) We're still 3 days out, so the track and intensity forecast can and will change, and 2) this is just a couple of model runs of the operational GFS. All I can do is pray for the best and prepare for the worst, as the saying goes.

 

[Snowfan]

Personally I thought GFS was drunk but the Euro was a big warning sign.

 

[Henry2326]

Personally I thought GFS was drunk but the Euro was a big warning sign.

HWRF and HMON running now. Let's see if they pick up on the same thing from Euro and GFS.

 

[Chazwin]

That’s still a powerful hurricane at 967mb. If this strengthens any faster than forecast then this could very well trend little more east as it feels the front l.

Yeah the stronger and more quickly deepening storm should go a bit further east

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[accu35]

View attachment 150866

This will change. HWRF has a hurricane now on the 18z

 

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF comes in west side of the envelope at 973....
HMON never gets off the ground.....

 

[accu35]

18z HWRF comes in west side of the envelope at 973....
HMON never gets off the ground.....

View attachment 150867

This is the first run with Six-06L 18z Euro and HAFS-A has a central Louisiana hit

 

[Henry2326]

This is the first run with Six-06L 18z Euro and HAFS-A has a central Louisiana hit

Probably why NHC forecast incorporates all the scenarios so far.

"The track guidance this cycle shifted east, with
the GFS and ECMWF models notably on the east side of the guidance
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast won't go quite that far
east, but splits the difference between the consensus aid TVCN and
these eastward model solutions. Future adjustments could be
necessary if these eastward trends continue. Given the current
structure, the track forecast is of lower confidence than usual."

 

[lexxnchloe]