Tropical Hurricane Francine

[Belle Lechat]

That avni model is drunk lol

It has company.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[NWMSGuy]

View attachment 150894

U-turning.

Tracks bring it further east into central MS but then pull it back west the further north she goes.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 150894

U-turning.

FFC was talking about the possibility of it getting trapped under the ridge and meandering around the SE. Looks like that’s starting to get picked up by a few of the models.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: similar LA landfall location/strength followed by NNE move to E MS; then N move to far W KY followed by dissipation near IL/IN border

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 96.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2024 0 24.1N 96.3W 1002 41
1200UTC 10.09.2024 12 24.7N 95.4W 999 35
0000UTC 11.09.2024 24 26.3N 94.2W 995 33
1200UTC 11.09.2024 36 28.4N 92.6W 991 49
0000UTC 12.09.2024 48 30.2N 90.4W 991 37
1200UTC 12.09.2024 60 32.7N 89.5W 995 26
0000UTC 13.09.2024 72 35.3N 89.1W 997 21
1200UTC 13.09.2024 84 36.5N 89.1W 1001 15
0000UTC 14.09.2024 96 37.7N 87.9W 1007 17
1200UTC 14.09.2024 108 38.9N 88.5W 1011 17
0000UTC 15.09.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

 

[Arcc]

Will be a hurricane in the next few hours. IR is looking nice with banding occurring around the center.

 

[Chazwin]

Will be a hurricane in the next few hours. IR is looking nice with banding occurring around the center.

Yeah it looks the dry air has been pushed out and cloud tops are starting to cool quickly.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[SD]

If it closes off the eye wall with this convective burst I'd be concerned about RI within the next 24 hours

 

[Henry2326]

Water everywhere.....

 

[Brent]

If it closes off the eye wall with this convective burst I'd be concerned about RI within the next 24 hours

This. Never write off a storm in the Gulf

 

[NoSnowATL]

This. Never write off a storm in the Gulf

It doesn't hit Lex so ill pass.

 

[LickWx]

It doesn't hit Lex so ill pass.

Doesn’t hit @accu35 either pass!

 

[accu35]

Doesn’t hit @accu35 either pass!

That’s ok, I’ll just get the bad side of it

 

[LickWx]

That’s ok, I’ll just get the bad side of it

Is it coming east?

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Is it coming east?

More than before.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Is it coming east?

He is in a good spot for once.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[accu35]

Is it coming east?

More east

 

[LickWx]

More east

Time to lockdown Huntsville category 10 billion hyper mega sonic cane incoming!

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[NoSnowATL]

Time to lockdown Huntsville category 10 billion hyper mega sonic cane incoming!

I think Accu is in Tusasucksatfootballoosa

 

[Belle Lechat]

Pre-soak.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Current forecast track has this coming straight overhead as a Depression. Good spot for rain for now.

 

[NWMSGuy]

To my un-trained eye, looks like the GFS is a little west compared to the 06z run at hour 48.

 

[NoSnowATL]

To my un-trained eye, looks like the GFS is a little west compared to the 06z run at hour 48.

its a jump east not west. any more moves east and it misses LA. ( wont happen)

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[accu35]

To my un-trained eye, looks like the GFS is a little west compared to the 06z run at hour 48.

Same location at landfall

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

Just showing my ignorance, Is he saying energy from the trough will feed into the storm?

 

[NWMSGuy]

Same location at landfall

At hour 48 it looks a smidge southwest when the center is running through southern Ms. Also, center is closer to my location at hour 60 compared to the prior run it appears.

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: landfall now into SE LA, a bit further E vs 0Z; then goes N through E MS and dissipates near KY

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 95.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2024 0 24.4N 95.8W 996 37
0000UTC 11.09.2024 12 25.9N 94.5W 994 36
1200UTC 11.09.2024 24 27.6N 93.1W 992 44
0000UTC 12.09.2024 36 29.2N 90.5W 989 40
1200UTC 12.09.2024 48 31.4N 89.3W 991 34
0000UTC 13.09.2024 60 34.3N 88.3W 994 24
1200UTC 13.09.2024 72 36.5N 89.1W 999 16
0000UTC 14.09.2024 84 36.6N 88.5W 1005 15
1200UTC 14.09.2024 96 37.7N 87.6W 1009 19
0000UTC 15.09.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

This should be one a H. I expect it to peak at cat 1 or 2 but more than likely landfall after some weakening a little from the peak from all that I’ve seen. Should hit as a H, regardless. Would be the 3rd US H hit by 9/11, a pretty rare feat. The last time was 2020 (I had previously said 2005 but have since corrected that). Prior to 2020: 2005, 2004, 1985, and then way back.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Latest 12z run of the HWRF has the center further west as it's traversing MS compared to 06z. Looks like it moves north straight up Interstate 55.

 

[NWMSGuy]

HMON looks to have shifted east as Francine is tracking through MS.

 

[SD]

If you just looked at the LCH radar you'd almost think what was moving on to the LA coast was the system itself.