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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Starting to get that elongated look and tipping it's hand on future path, which looks to be aiming dead at the southern coast

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Based on his close this thing is to Folly beach I’d say there’s no chance we don’t see landfall somewhere in ENC.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Based on his close this thing is to Folly beach I’d say there’s no chance we don’t see landfall somewhere in ENC.
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I swear it has wobbled just west of due north in the last few frames of imagery, getting it within 30 mi of Folly Beach
 
Downeastnc said:
My guess as to the track of the center....this is to give some idea to just how big that center is and how much area of NC coast it will impact.

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From Wilmington all the way through the OBX. There's already been tornado damage, but it looks like the worse is yet to come, unfortunately.
 
Brick Tamland said:
From Wilmington all the way through the OBX. There's already been tornado damage, but it looks like the worse is yet to come, unfortunately.
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According to one of my colleagues in Brunswick Co, Hwy 17 already washed out
 
One of my clients lives in Carolina Beach and will be riding the storm out. He said he'd post pics and videos on social media, so if he does and I can figure out how to post them, I will.
 
According to the HRRR it should start heading due east any moment now, then back NE from there....keeping it offshore, let's see how that plays out
 
metwannabe said:
According to the HRRR it should start heading due east any moment now, then back NE from there....keeping it offshore, let's see how that plays out
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It's the western wobble that has this right on the shore, I didn't see many models with that at this point
 
Thor said:
It's the western wobble that has this right on the shore, I didn't see many models with that at this point
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Well believe it or not the HRRR isn't that far off from it's current location, it's the sharp east turn right after I'm a little skeptical of but anything is possible

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The key for us in inland NC will be the NW side wind maxima forming like the models show....how big it is, how ( or even if) it sets up etc...kind of like the deform bands in winter storms.....those under it will get a much different experience than those who are not.
 
Currently in Greenville NC debating on riding this one out vs leaving. Any thoughts on flooding risk from dorian vs matthew?
 
whatitdo said:
Currently in Greenville NC debating on riding this one out vs leaving. Any thoughts on flooding risk from dorian vs matthew?
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No risk of river flooding IMO unless it stalls and its actually going to speed up, street flooding and such will be bad in town it always is but the bigger issue will be the winds for us here in Pitt Co.
 
whatitdo said:
Currently in Greenville NC debating on riding this one out vs leaving. Any thoughts on flooding risk from dorian vs matthew?
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Not very similar to Matthew. Given the dry conditions recently we can probably stand a decent amount of rain before flooding gets going.
 
tramadoc said:
A sharp east turn takes it right out to sea without affecting land. What makes you think it’s going to do that?
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I said the HRRR was showing that, then a NE turn to keep it offshore... my post you quoted I said "I'm skeptical of that", with that being said that vorticity lob at the base of the trough diving down into Tn could easily be the catalyst to keep it offshore.
 
metwannabe said:
I said the HRRR was showing that, then a NE turn to keep it offshore... my post you quoted I said "I'm skeptical of that", with that being said that vorticity lob at the base of the trough diving down into Tn could easily be the catalyst to keep it offshore.
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Oh
 
This video was from earlier this morning.
"**NEW VIDEO** Our field crews were right in front of a tornado that passed through Carolina Shores this morning. There were reports of damage in this area from the storm."


 
metwannabe said:
I said the HRRR was showing that, then a NE turn to keep it offshore... my post you quoted I said "I'm skeptical of that", with that being said that vorticity lob at the base of the trough diving down into Tn could easily be the catalyst to keep it offshore.
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This will effect the path, just how much and when.... yet to be seen

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Downeastnc said:
No risk of river flooding IMO unless it stalls and its actually going to speed up, street flooding and such will be bad in town it always is but the bigger issue will be the winds for us here in Pitt Co.
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SD said:
Not very similar to Matthew. Given the dry conditions recently we can probably stand a decent amount of rain before flooding gets going.
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Thanks yall, hopefully not too much wind damage and everyone stays safe
 
Looks like it might be putting on the brakes, I'll not be surprised to see a more NE motion here shortly.
 
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