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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

I hope so, I already told my boss at Toyota here in Columbia I would volunteer to help out Charleston and the Toyota down there to help people get out of it heads that way
We got the TRD 4runners
 
MichaelAndrews said:
I hope so, I already told my boss at Toyota here in Columbia I would volunteer to help out Charleston and the Toyota down there to help people get out of it heads that way
We got the TRD 4runners
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Still have a chance it goes to fishes and doesn't hit land...
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm gonna say it: it's not going to touch Florida. It's only going to scrape the Carolinas.
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HWRF and HMON 06z agree with you....misses FL

Edit: I'm not sure if a scrape helps, although less than a direct hit.. Matthew was offshore for both SC and NC. The wind was like a freight train. Charleston flooded with NC taking the brunt of it.
 
Hmmmmmm. Couple things to note. The cat 5 winds aren't far off the surface now and that dry pocket. Also the dropsonde prior to it set the pressure at 944 mb. Extrapolated was around 939.
recon_NOAA2-2205A-DORIAN_dropsonde5_20190831-1052.png
 
East trends for hurricanes are like NW trends for snowstorms. They almost always happen and you never want to.be in the bullseye 5 days out.

That said the current gfs and euro brushes along the carolina coast gives a hard hit to all the major beaches. I am in greenville a little ways inland and would be on the weak side. More worried about rain if the euro and gfs tracks are close to being right. Any more inland and my wind threat goes up.......gfs is faster so we need to watch forward speed the next 24 to 36 hours not just for NC/SC concerns but for Florida as well.
 
KyloG said:
Interesting with the low to the north further west past few runs on the EPS.

View attachment 22568
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Wouldnt that allow more ridging to build off the east coast and allow for a more flattened recurve possibly bringing it closer to the coast. Instead of a wilmington to morehead city to cape lookout coulds that force it more NNE?
 
As for Florida it's difficult to imagine this hitting Florida with this setup. Big ridge to it's west, trough directly north over NC and weak atlantic ridge to it's east. EPS is usually money inside hour 60.

14-km EPS Global United States 500 hPa Z Norm Anom 60.png
 
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