Henry2326
Member
06z NAM, no FL landfall.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
MichaelAndrews
Member
I hope so, I already told my boss at Toyota here in Columbia I would volunteer to help out Charleston and the Toyota down there to help people get out of it heads that way
We got the TRD 4runners
We got the TRD 4runners
Henry2326
Member
Still have a chance it goes to fishes and doesn't hit land...
Henry2326
Member
GFS 06z, view of landfall..up close..
BHS1975
Member
This reminds me of Irma trying to figure out when the turn north would happen. The models where too quick to turn.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
As Larry, and others have pointed out today is s really big day for the eventual track of Dorian. Still moving pretty quickly in a general Westerly direction.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm gonna say it: it's not going to touch Florida. It's only going to scrape the Carolinas.
Henry2326
Member
HWRF and HMON 06z agree with you....misses FL
Edit: I'm not sure if a scrape helps, although less than a direct hit.. Matthew was offshore for both SC and NC. The wind was like a freight train. Charleston flooded with NC taking the brunt of it.
Last 3 hours steering vs now
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hmmmmmm. Couple things to note. The cat 5 winds aren't far off the surface now and that dry pocket. Also the dropsonde prior to it set the pressure at 944 mb. Extrapolated was around 939.
Shaggy
Member
East trends for hurricanes are like NW trends for snowstorms. They almost always happen and you never want to.be in the bullseye 5 days out.
That said the current gfs and euro brushes along the carolina coast gives a hard hit to all the major beaches. I am in greenville a little ways inland and would be on the weak side. More worried about rain if the euro and gfs tracks are close to being right. Any more inland and my wind threat goes up.......gfs is faster so we need to watch forward speed the next 24 to 36 hours not just for NC/SC concerns but for Florida as well.
That said the current gfs and euro brushes along the carolina coast gives a hard hit to all the major beaches. I am in greenville a little ways inland and would be on the weak side. More worried about rain if the euro and gfs tracks are close to being right. Any more inland and my wind threat goes up.......gfs is faster so we need to watch forward speed the next 24 to 36 hours not just for NC/SC concerns but for Florida as well.
Henry2326
Member
Definitely wants to go toward it....like a magnet
Shaggy
Member
Wouldnt that allow more ridging to build off the east coast and allow for a more flattened recurve possibly bringing it closer to the coast. Instead of a wilmington to morehead city to cape lookout coulds that force it more NNE?
As for Florida it's difficult to imagine this hitting Florida with this setup. Big ridge to it's west, trough directly north over NC and weak atlantic ridge to it's east. EPS is usually money inside hour 60.
JaxHurricane12
Member
If this thing moved any faster it'd definitely make landfall in FL
145 MpH winds now!
Henry2326
Member
06z Navgem moved back west, while 00z was out to sea, it gets this close
