Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Brent]

But the trend is further east. That's encouraging. It still could easily playing catchup and be ots on later runs.

I agree with this totally, it seems like an undeniable trend at this point

 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro is stalling again at 60 and even further east than earlier runs. Better chance for ots this run but don't know outcome yet.

 

[GaWx]

72 hr Euro tells me to bet on track east of 12Z as of now/OTS?

 

[Brent]

Looks like the trough is deeper this run

I think its ots

 

[ncskywarn]

Looks like the trough misses it

 

[Brent]

Definitely missing most of FL

 

[Weatherlover92]

Looks like Dorian misses the trough, keeps going NW at hr 96.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Here’s the upper level steering, likely to move west.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

EURO hates the Bahamas. Refuses to miss them.

 

[Brent]

Charleston safely misses FL

 

[Spurs up]

Charleston safely misses FL

View attachment 22560

noooooooooo!!!

 

[GaWx]

May lf at Wilmington

Yep at 138

 

[GaWx]

May lf at Wilmington

Yep at 138

Correction. Long Beach LF at 138

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Wouldn’t take much on the euro to take this baby OTS. Ensembles I think will weight to the east more so than the west.

 

[Brent]

Wouldn’t take much on the euro to take this baby OTS. Ensembles I think will weight to the east more so than the west.

if this east trend is legit it'll probably go more east tbh

I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow we're fully ots

 

[GaWx]

Key is making sure he doesn't speed up over next 48 hours before the expected stall.

 

[Spurs up]

if this east trend is legit it'll probably go more east tbh

I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow we're fully ots

hope so.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

if this east trend is legit it'll probably go more east tbh

I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow we're fully ots

The euro wasn’t actually a east trend for Carolinas it literally shifted closer to coast.

 

[GaWx]

Key is making sure he doesn't speed up over next 48 hours before the expected stall.

Just doing interpolations (2 AM is 1/3 of time from 11 PM til 8 AM), it actually has been moving slightly faster westward than projected. So, got to still watch/FL is far from out of the woods. That could easily just be due to a wobble.

 

[deltadog03]

Just doing interpolations (2 AM is 1/3 of time from 11 PM til 8 AM), it actually has been moving slightly faster westward than projected. So, got to still watch/FL is far from out of the woods. That could easily just be due to a wobble.

Agreed speed will be an important part as it moves Westerly today.