Henry2326
Member
Based on what I've seen this week, I won't believe it until the door opens. Clearly, we don't have precise tools to get this one inside of 200 miles.
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
just one run buddy! tomorrow it will be making landfall in Jersey lol
Henry2326
Member
I hear ya.....tomorrow is another day.
Canadian is moving it north into SC at hour 102.
nope! im not trying to hear that! lol
Henry2326
Member
Might as well be Charleston, since it would be on the northeast side on approach.
Edit: CMC ran along the same path as GFS at 18z. They ran very similar now at 00z.
Here are the GFS ensembles. They don’t repeat the FV3 or legacy with the exception of a few. However about all of them impact land one way or another in comparison to 18z that had several members OTS. I do think the track the CMC/GFS gave is something to consider as a solution if Dorian speeds up. The Euro will be Important this run to determine if this Carolina landfall track is something to watch
The threat is going up if your in Virginia and north-eastern NC. Didn’t see it mentioned anywhere but I would be prepared in the Virginia Beach area.
I see a nice little Westerly movement now the last few hours. still has some speed. I know it's been asked before but is there a sat with NHC plots?
Brent
Member
The hwrf which last run hit Canaveral is now missing Florida to the east
It looks like the trend tonight is not only east away from Florida but faster
The Euro could seal the deal for the 0z suite soon
It looks like the trend tonight is not only east away from Florida but faster
The Euro could seal the deal for the 0z suite soon
HMON looking to hit the Carolinas, Similar to the GFS and CMC.
Brent
Member
Hwrf also headed for GA/SC
Uh oh, Charleston Incoming.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
EURO hour zero at 989mb.
Brent
Member
Ouch
Well bigger the eye the more calm weather. Better to hit than scrape?
Brent
Member
well a scrape might keep the worst weather offshore so not really
The trend toward ots is undeniable. As long as he doesn't speedup to faster than modeled, I think the chances are good. The slowing has been occurring steadily from run to run. And wow how bad the earlier UK runs are looking although it was predictable.
But the trend is further east. That's encouraging. It still could easily playing catchup and be ots on later runs.