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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Am I reading too much into this? Theybare saying Dorian should stay on current course until "a day or so" then he accelerates NE......in a day or so they have him east of NC soooooo? Does this give credence to the models that ran up the inner banks for so many runs in a row? Or am I just reading too much into their wording?

The hurricane is
currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within
a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing
forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the
north.
 
BHS1975 said:
Looks like its moving ne now.


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Good thing too because the center is only 75 mi from Charleston and the NW eyewall less than 50, it's about to cross 32N also

Lots of tor warnings NE SC and SE NC this morning
 
well the next 6-8 hrs will be rough around Charleston, then we shall see how far NW into NC Dorian gets, starting to look like a clean miss with the center is impossible, huge eye plus track at best right off the coast means almost all of the NE SC and NC coast will either be in the center or inner core.....
 
Downeastnc said:
well the next 6-8 hrs will be rough around Charleston, then we shall see how far NW into NC Dorian gets, starting to look like a clean miss with the center is impossible, huge eye plus track at best right off the coast means almost all of the NE SC and NC coast will either be in the center or inner core.....
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Yeah and fwiw this late in the game the Euro shifted back west along the NC coast last night and just glancing this morning looks like all modeling has it making LF somewhere on the coast

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At this point none of the major models track the center off the NC coast, the farthest east is the GFS with a track from Lookout to Hatteras everything else is left of that with the 3k being the furthest inland just inshore of the IBX,
 
Downeastnc said:
At this point none of the major models track the center off the NC coast, the farthest east is the GFS with a track from Lookout to Hatteras everything else is left of that with the 3k being the furthest inland just inshore of the IBX,
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Barring a hard right turn and considering all models are showing the strong wind profile on the west side, looking like the potential at the very least of widespread power outages especially 95 east
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah and fwiw this late in the game the Euro shifted back west along the NC coast last night and just glancing this morning looks like all modeling has it making LF somewhere on the coast

Is the 18Z Euro out yet? Thought really at this point we are pretty much now casting.
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metwannabe said:
Barring a hard right turn and considering all models are showing the strong wind profile on the west side, looking like the potential at the very least of widespread power outages especially 95 east
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Yep no doubt millions will be without power in the Carolina's by midday Friday....
 
Over 100k already without power. Transformers been lightning up the sky all night. Cell service spotty. Winds have been as high as 60mph near Summerville. Charleston NWS has had a peak gust so far of 68mph (20 miles inland) in North Charleston. Long day ahead
 
Not yet but I'm with you it's really now nowcast time

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When should conditions in the Triangle start to worsen, if they do? Or is it hard to know depending on the track?
 
Looks like it has turned earlier than any of even the 6Z models were predicting. Still may get to the coast but I think this early turn gives it a shot to miss even OBX if it does not wobble back to the left.
 
Considering SC already has a 100k people without power an NC already feeling it, there's obviously no way to avoid serious impact from Dorian at this time period. With that said I still think there's a window of opportunity for it to stay out to sea and never make landfall. If you look at water vapor imagery you can see that kicker dropping down through the plains, will be interesting today to see how he responds to that, will it be a tug north or straight kick out NE?

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Nomanslandva said:
Looks like it has turned earlier than any of even the 6Z models were predicting. Still may get to the coast but I think this early turn gives it a shot to miss even OBX if it does not wobble back to the left.
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Agree

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Already one tornado watch out and looks like another one coming.

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Listening to Brunswick County scanner, and they have damage from a tornado.
 
Good Lord at the warnings between North Myrtle through Wilmington area. They are getting slammed. Every time I open radar there is a new TVS popping up.
 
The tornados and severe storms at the coast might end up the biggest threat if Dorian stays offshore.
 
Sounds like Brunswick County got hit hard. Hearing reports of property damage and lots of trees and power lines down
 
metwannabe said:
Dorian is definitely on a more NE heading and seems to have increased in forward speed, needs to veer more east to miss the NC coast entirely though.
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Its gonna wobble east then north etc....there will be a lot of people going " its turned east its gonna miss" or "its turned north it gonna hit early: post today....

Watching the 6Z 3k NAM run it almost has this move perfectly and now the center is going to jog north closer to Myrtle I bet I think the 3k NAM actually has a pretty good handle on it,
 
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Downeastnc said:
Its gonna wobble east then north etc....there will be a lot of people going " its turned east its gonna miss" or "its turned north it gonna hit early: post today....
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Yeah, some models even show this NE movement and then a slightly more NNE movement just before hitting the Carolina Coast.

And here is the 06z Euro, slightly east and just skirts the coast.... however, it also shows it in it's current location at around 2 pm so Dorian may be ahead of schedule at this point, imo making it more difficult to turn fast enough. We shall see

1567685315731.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Its gonna wobble east then north etc....there will be a lot of people going " its turned east its gonna miss" or "its turned north it gonna hit early: post today....

Watching the 6Z 3k NAM run it almost has this move perfectly and now the center is going to jog north closer to Myrtle I bet I think the 3k NAM actually has a pretty good handle on it,
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In fact almost looks like a north jog atm, we know wobbles happen but when it's only 50 miles offshore a wobble in the wrong direction means everything
 
Are there plans to start a thread concerning current conditions with the storm?


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metwannabe said:
In fact almost looks like a north jog atm, we know wobbles happen but when it's only 50 miles offshore a wobble in the wrong direction means everything
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It feels like I have been watching Dorians location in relation to Bald Head Island on the Models for 5 days so that is generally the path I'm keeping in mind while watching the imagery. The eye is so large in actuality and it has such a wobbly motion it's hard to get much accuracy out of watching it.
 
metwannabe said:
Keep it all in here, we're simplistic like that....
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Okay. Wasn’t sure if it was done like on the big board with current observations. As a glass that needs more beer kinda guy, I am thinking not bad for me, but I will keep it updated as time goes on. Hell, I think I’m the farthest north of anyone in the Carolinas.


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Looks like it's gonna end up being close but no cigar on rain getting thrown all the way back here. Furthest west it got at least of now on this latitude was Barnwell, SC.

On a more serious note, rough morning in the Carolinas:

 
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tramadoc said:
Okay. Wasn’t sure if it was done like on the big board with current observations. As a glass that needs more beer kinda guy, I am thinking not bad for me, but I will keep it updated as time goes on. Hell, I think I’m the farthest north of anyone in the Carolinas.


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Ummm we are the big board

And see my location, think I have the northern flank covered Lol. But you are in a great spot (or bad I guess) to give some good updates tonight and tomorrow morning. Stay safe
 
Western eyewall only 40 mi from Charleston and the north eyewall less than that to McCellanvile, SC. Dang its inching close
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metwannabe said:
Ummm we are the big board

And see my location, think I have the northern flank covered Lol. But you are in a great spot (or bad I guess) to give some good updates tonight and tomorrow morning. Stay safe
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I meant AmericanWx


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