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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Tornado damage Emerald Isle
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WeatherFlow at Winyah Bay SC
 

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Anybody around Johnston county hear that rumbling just a min ago? Was that thunder? It went on for close to 20 seconds.
 
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...

Multiple observing stations located in and around Charleston Harbor
have reported wind gusts of 75-80 mph (120-129 km/h) within the last
hour.

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 86 mph (138 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Got friends on the Bay in Winyah. Hope they're holding up well. Haven't heard anything
 
Charleston feeling the outer bands....I don't know if they know how lucky we are.....too close for comfort....can't stop thinking that the burst of intensity late yesterday saved Charleston from the eye.....


 
Almost every model has the wind maximum showing up in Eastern NC now. Obviously some are over done but could certainly be an issue tonight into tomorrow morning. Location is still up in the air depending on where the storm ends up
925wh.us_ma (1).png
 
IR showing the west side become pretty loaded and I wonder if that might be enough to tug the center west as that big flare up takes hold?
 
Local TV stations in Wilmington are so busy talking about the tornado warnings that they haven't been able to report on where Dorian is heading.
 
Seems there is less traffic on the thread today. I thought it would be busier now that Dorian is actually on the doorstep and with the tornado threat.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Seems there is less traffic on the thread today. I thought it would be busier now that Dorian is actually on the doorstep and with the tornado threat.
Click to expand...

Worst of the weather (aside from tornado threat) to hit this evening with eye approaching and sting jet that models are depicting over eastern NC. I expect people need to take a bit of a pause before the triple threat onslaught. HRRR showing convective elements covering much of NC from Triangle eastward to Pamlico Sound starting this evening.
 
blueheronNC said:
Worst of the weather (aside from tornado threat) to hit this evening with eye approaching and sting jet that models are depicting over eastern NC. I expect people need to take a bit of a pause before the triple threat onslaught. HRRR showing convective elements covering much of NC from Triangle eastward to Pamlico Sound starting this evening.
Click to expand...

Maybe so. I was afraid everyone was so burned out from tracking Dorian that they are done talking about it now that it is here.
 
Thor said:
Almost every model has the wind maximum showing up in Eastern NC now. Obviously some are over done but could certainly be an issue tonight into tomorrow morning. Location is still up in the air depending on where the storm ends up
View attachment 23217
Click to expand...

Yeah the HRRR has it, NAM has it looks like a 4-6 hr window of 60-80 mph gust...we shall see....HRRR gives Triangle hrs and hrs of 40-50 mph winds as well starting around 10-12pm tonight

18 hrs from now
gust_t610m_f18.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
Maybe so. I was afraid everyone was so burned out from tracking Dorian that they are done talking about it now that it is here.
Click to expand...
I'm sure that is part of it too. But since it didn't get to 80.001 degrees west the threat is gone;). It will pick up when people get off work. A lot of people are trying to get things wrapped up in case there are outages or preparing.
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Tornado Warning for...
West central Wayne County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina...

* Until 230 PM EDT

* At 152 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Goldsboro, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mar-Mac, Grantham and Brogden.
 
I haven't had much time to settle in and look at stuff until now (although I did watch some waves for a few minutes), but I just found a flood stream in Murrells Inlet, SC and it's honestly getting a bit nuts if they stay (Brett Adair). I'm also tired and a little ill (and this is unrelated).

He is doing a live hit however so they might get out of dodge soon.

Also uhhh, we're going to have a landfall soon if Dorian doesn't take a hard ENE turn like....very soon. Edit: and the last frame or two does look east but it might be a wobble.
 
Thor said:
I'm sure that is part of it too. But since it didn't get to 80.001 degrees west the threat is gone;). It will pick up when people get off work. A lot of people are trying to get things wrapped up in case there are outages or preparing.
Click to expand...
We're getting more rain than I thought.
 
Stormdoc said:
Last few frames of my radar looks like he is moving east
Click to expand...
Probably a wobble, NHC still has NNE as of 2 pm. I thought it had turned NE earlier and it wobbled back, smooth those out and still on a NNE heading. Recon is currently in there though, so if it has moved east of north more we will know soon
 
I have a friend already saying no power in Raleigh where they evacuated to
 
metwannabe said:
Probably a wobble, NHC still has NNE as of 2 pm. I thought it had turned NE earlier and it wobbled back, smooth those out and still on a NNE heading. Recon is currently in there though, so if it has moved east of north more we will know soon
Click to expand...

Gonna have to have more east wobble than north wobbles if he is going to stay on or east of the NHC track, once he speeds up the wobbling will smooth out and I think the more inland track Cape Fear/MHX/Hatteras is likely if it doesnt make a good east turn in the next 4-5 hrs....
 
Downeastnc said:
Gonna have to have more east wobble than north wobbles if he is going to stay on or east of the NHC track, once he speeds up the wobbling will smooth out and I think the more inland track Cape Fear/MHX/Hatteras is likely if it doesnt make a good east turn in the next 4-5 hrs....
Click to expand...
Yeah I tend to agree with this, also of note if I'm not mistaken he is already further NW then any of today's model runs showed..... which is why I basically have quit looking at them. Just monitor radar now but I'm afraid ILM is going to get rocked
 
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